Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Sat, January 27th, 2024 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, January 28th, 2024 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Allie Barker
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger remains LOW today at all elevations, on all aspects.  Triggering an avalanche will be unlikely.

Expect to find lingering yet stubborn old wind slabs in many locations which will impact skiing and riding quality.

Frostbite will be the biggest hazard of the day with below zero temperatures expected to persist through the weekend.

A glimmer of hope exists for a small dusting of snow on Monday.

Special Announcements

Looking for better plans after your Saturday touring day? Only TWO MORE WEEKS until HPAC’s biggest party of the year, where you can dance the night away with your friends and The Jangle Bees! Get your tickets now, we expect them to sell out before the event.

POSTPONED! Anchorage: Avalanche Rescue Skills Workshop. This event is being postponed to a later date (TBD) due to extremely cold temperatures. A new date will be posted as soon as it’s determined.

Sat, January 27th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Sun, January 28th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Sun, January 28th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

No recent avalanches have been observed or reported since 1/19.

Recent Conditions

1/26 Large cornices exist on many leeward aspects. Keep a healthy distance back from these beasts. Rae Wallace ridgeline 4600′.

 

1/26 Large but well supported cornice at the top of the boot pack couloir on Rae Wallace 4500′.

 

1/26 1-4″ thick slabs exist in many locations that are stubborn, unlikely to propagate and make for challenging riding conditions.

 

1/26 Despite the smile in this photo I am not happy about the variable conditions and plethora of old wind slab in many locations. Microdot S 4200′.

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Normal Caution
    Normal Caution
Normal Caution
Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.
More info at Avalanche.org

It is rare in January for us to have no avalanche problems to talk about yet here we are. The current stagnant weather pattern continues to steer us to focus more on conditions and less on stability. This will change but not today.  Finding good quality snow has been challenging over the past several days although it does exist in some protected locations.  The bad news is lingering 1 to 4 inch thick firm to breakable slabs exist on a variety of aspects and elevations and continue to plague ski and riding quality. Making hop turns, a tried and true method for eloquently descending a slope with less than ideal snow quality was even challenging on Friday.

The good news is significantly colder temperatures forecasted for this weekend will continue to help the snowpack lose density and facet out snow surfaces which will slowly improve riding conditions.  What we call “square powder” is truly the next best thing to actually receiving any new snow.

No significant avalanches have been observed or reported this week. Triggering a small dry loose sluff in steep terrain 40º and steeper will be possible and manageable in isolated or extreme terrain today.

Frostbite will be the biggest concern of the day. Temperatures reported at 5am this morning:

  • -6ºF @ Marmot 4500′
  •  -6ºF @ Independence Mine 3500′
  •  -7ºF @ Frostbite 2700′
  • -11ºF @ Lucky Shot Mine @ 2100′ on the Willow side of Hatcher Pass

Today is a good day to double up those insulated jackets, don’t forget the hot thermos, and consider trying out those electric socks santa gave you for Christmas.  High uncertainty still exists for our next best chance for precipitation late Sunday through Monday.

 

 

Weather
Sat, January 27th, 2024

NWS AVG Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

Marmot Weather Station here.

Independence Mine Snotel here.

Frostbite Bottom Snotel here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

XC trail grooming report for Mat-Su, Anchorage, and Kenai here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass