Hatcher Pass

The last observed and confirmed avalanches were two human-triggered avalanches on Jan 27th. Some small wet loose avalanches were observed on Jan 31st, these likely occurred on Jan 29th or 30th. See the previous forecast for pictures. As a reminder, you can click on the archive button on the top right of the forecast to view historical forecasts from this season.

Overnight we received approximately 4″ of right side up new low-density snow at 3000′. This won’t increase the avalanche danger today by much, but it will help improve riding conditions.

Small, mostly inconsequential loose dry avalanches will be possible to human trigger up to 6″ deep on all aspects and all elevations on slopes 40 degrees and steeper. Loose, fluffy snow is sitting on older firm surfaces and crusts, giving the newer snow a nice bed surface to slide on. There may have been some small loose dry natural avalanche activity overnight on very steep slopes, and as this storm has petered out, we don’t expect any natural activity today.

Triggering any loose dry avalanche will be inconsequential and small in volume, however, use caution around cliffs and other hazards where being swept could compound the hazard.

A trend of warm temperatures has allowed for some of the recent precipitation over the last 12 days to come in as rain and a number of fragile thin crusts are buried in the upper snowpack. You will likely notice a few buried crusts in the snow that accumulated since 1/23. None of these are currently a weak layer of concern but do affect the quality of riding conditions.

Warm, mild weather with incremental loading over an extended period of time has allowed our snowpack’s structure to improve and for stability to increase. We have been closely watching the snowpack structure and layering. We see an improving stability trend with rounding and bonding occurring throughout the entire snowpack structure. Instabilty testing targeting potential weaknesses have also shown an overall increase in stability.

The overall amount of new snow and intensity of accumulation will not stress out any buried weak layers. Today should be a great day for playing in the mountains and snow, should visibility allow.

To recap the series of small storms over the last 12 days that have brought incremental new snow amounts to HP:

1/23 – 1.4″ SWE,  8” of snow

1/25 – 0.4” of SWE, 2-3” of snow

1/29 – 0.4″ of SWE, about 4″ of new snow

2/1-2 – 0.2″ SWE, 2″ snow

2/3-4 – Last 24 hours: The NRCS weather station system including IM Snotel and Frostbite Bottom Snotel are down this morning and not reporting data. The Marmot station is reporting calm winds overnight at 4500′ with approximately 4″ of new snow at 3000′. The Skeetawk Storm Board reports approximately 2-3″ of new snow overnight. Lucky shot mine weather stations are reporting 8.5″ of snow settled to 4″ and 1.0″ SWE. Temperatures hovered around 20-24°F @ 2155′ and 17F at 4315′ on the Willow side and 14-15°F at marmot weather station 4500′. This storm may have favored the Willow side.

Today’s Weather:

NWS forecast is calling for continued cloudy skies with chances for very light precipitation, less than an inch of snow possible and no new snow accumulation for Sunday through Monday. See the weather tab above for more details.