Hatcher Pass Avalanche Forecast

Natural and human triggered avalanches were observed on 2/5-6, size D1-2, on all aspects, at mid to upper elevations, after HP received 8-12″ of new snow with light to moderate winds.

2/5-6 – Eldorado Lower Rolls, East, 3600′. Natural slab avalanches failed during storm

2/6 – Microdot, South, 4550′. Unintentional skier triggered avalanche, approximately 12″ deep, contained to terrain feature. See observations for more details.

2/6- Eldorado, NE, 4350′. REMOTELY triggered by rider at marked white X. Crown marked in red.

2/6 – Eldorado Headwall, East, 4650′. Intentional ski cut triggered at white X, no involvement, crown in red. 6″ deep x 175′ wide x 1200′ vertical

As of early this morning, strong gusts have picked up to SE 30-49 mph at 4500′ for 6 hrs.  New snow and strong winds today have and will continue to build dangerous, sensitive wind slabs. Wind slabs will be a CONSIDERABLE hazard on steep slopes, on leeward aspects, generally West to North, at mid to upper elevations. Natural avalanches will be possible and human triggered avalanches are likely. Expect wind slabs to be up to 12″ to 24″ thick this morning and growing in size and sensitivity throughout the day, potentially reaching 3 feet deep by Sunday.

As wind slabs build in depth today, they will potentially overload persistent weak layers deeper in the snowpack, which, if triggered, will be larger and more dangerous.

Below is a picture of the Marmot snow stake early this morning, showing wind effected snow.

The avalanche hazard for persistent slabs, at mid to upper elevations, on slopes 35° and steeper, is CONSIDERABLE this morning on W to NE aspects. Strong winds and new snow will overload the existing snowpack, with slabs reaching 2-3 feet deep by the end of today. The persistent slab hazard will be MODERATE this morning on windward aspects, rising to CONSIDERABLE this afternoon, on all aspects, with additional new snow accumulation and strong winds.

Persistent slabs may allow you to enter slopes and break well above you, making escape difficult to impossible.

At low elevation, the hazard is LOW, and will rise to MODERATE this afternoon, on slopes 35° and steeper, in specific locations, on leeward aspects, West to North, and on terrain features such as gully side walls and on steep roll-overs.

The pattern of distribution is complex and highly variable. Persistent slabs are sitting on a variety of bed surfaces, including combinations of crusts, smooth wind board, and the January High Pressure Facets.

Below is a video recorded on 2/7 which shows the snowpack setup leading up to this weekend. New snow loads will likely overload these layers.

Approximately 18” to 35″ of new snow is expected above 1000’ by late today. Storm slabs will be building through the day on all aspects, at all elevations.

We expect storm slabs to initially fail on the new/old snow interface. If we get more than 12” of new snow, expect the potential for storm slabs to fail and step down deeper to the persistent slab, up to 2-3 feet deep, which will be larger and more consequential. By end of day today, Naturals avalanches will be possible, and human triggered avalanches will be likely, on all aspects, at mid and upper elevation, on slopes steeper than 35°.

Dry loose avalanches will be an additional new avalanche problem on steep slopes and growing in size through today and into tomorrow.