Hatcher Pass
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The Bottom Line
The avalanche danger is MODERATE for soft WIND SLABS up to 6″ thick at upper elevation, on southwest to north aspects, on slopes 35º and steeper.
The avalanche danger is MODERATE for LOOSE DRY avalanches at mid and upper elevation, on all aspects, in terrain 40º and steeper.
Natural avalanches are unlikely.
Small incremental storms will continue to bring snow to Hatcher Pass this weekend.
Despite the recent wind, great conditions can be found in protected locations, however, overcast skies and snow in the forecast will make navigation challenging this weekend.
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| Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
| Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
| Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Natural and human triggered loose dry avalanches (sluffs) were observed on 2/9 in numerous locations in steep terrain 40º and steeper.
One person was reported getting caught and carried in a sluff, pulled his airbag, and buried up to his waist. He was reported uninjured on Thursday.
Loose dry avalanches (sluffs) in Rae Wallace on 2/9
Loose dry sluffs near Marmot lodge run on 2/9
Loose dry sluffs on Marmot below summit on 2/9
Small loose dry sluffs on Marmot, wrapping corner towards Rae Wallace on 2/9
Small, soft wind slabs 2-5″ thick were observed on 2/10 on SW to N aspects at upper elevation as winds picked up throughout the afternoon.
2/10 Cracking and small, soft wind slabs forming Friday afternoon on Marmot south ridge at 4000′.
2/10 More cracking and soft slab formation observed on Friday afternoon up to 2″ thick in this location.
| Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
| Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
| Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
| Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
| Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
It will be possible to human trigger soft WIND SLABS up to 6″ thick on southwest to north aspects at upper elevation on slopes 35º and steeper. Natural avalanches are unlikely.
Winds picked up around 1 pm on Friday, gusting ESE 21-26mph at 4500′ for 8 hours. Winds have started to diminish as of 6 am this morning.
Expect this avalanche hazard to be small and manageable. A ski/slope cut can be a useful tool for experienced skiers/riders for managing this shallow, soft slab avalanche problem.
Wind speeds at mid and low elevation were not able to transport snow and build winds slabs, therefore, it will be unlikely to trigger a wind slab below 3500′.
Look for hard snow sitting over weaker snow, smooth and rounded or lens shaped features. Shooting cracks or whumping are signs of instability and indicators of this avalanche problem.
New snow expected today combined with low visibility will make finding these wind slabs a little more challenging.
Expect the wind slab problem to improve within 24 hours after winds subside.
We always recommend using safe travel protocol in avalanche terrain:
| Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
| Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
| Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
| Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
| Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
It will be possible to human trigger small to large LOOSE DRY avalanches with 6 to 10 inches of low density snow in protected locations, on all aspects, at mid and upper elevation, on slopes 40° and steeper. Natural avalanches are unlikely.
In some locations, loose, low density snow is sitting on older firm surfaces and crusts, giving new snow from Feb 1-8th a smooth bed surface to slide on.
Cold temps in the teens and single digits over the the past 5 days have assisted the low density snow in the faceting process which means sluffs can run faster and potentially catch you off guard.
Triggering any loose dry avalanche has the potential to be consequential especially if caught and carried near cliffs and other hazards where being swept could compound the hazard.
Sluff management skills are recommended if skiing or riding the steeps.
Loose dry avalanches observed on 2/9 all along Rae Wallace. One rider on Thursday was caught and carried in a sluff, pulled his airbag, buried up to his waist, and was reported uninjured.
2/10 Winds increased ESE 10-14mph, gusting 21-26mph for 8+ hours at 4500′.
No new snow since 2/8.
NWS AVG Forecast here.
NWS point forecast here.
Marmot Weather Station here.
Independence Mine Snotel here.
Frostbite Bottom Snotel here.
State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.
XC trail grooming report for Mat-Su, Anchorage, and Kenai here.
