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A MODERATE avalanche hazard exists for wind slabs above 3500 ft where triggering a small to large avalanche remains possible. Triggering a wind slab below 3500 ft will be unlikely.
After 5 days of strong wind, snow surfaces resemble walking on the moon especially above 3500ft.
Warmer temperatures will persist throughout the weekend and contribute to softening snow surfaces below 2500 ft with temperatures expected to reach nearly 40ºF.
Today will be a good character building day if you get out in the mountains.
Permanent Fund Dividend applications are available from January 1 to March 31. If you have already applied, Alaskans may choose to add or adjust their pledges online through August 31. Thank you for considering HPAC as a pledge recipient!
Join HPAC for Winter Discovery Day on February 24, 2024. We’ll be at Skeetawk offering rescue gear practice and avalanche awareness information. The event is free and family friendly. Activities are happening at multiple trailheads in the Hatcher Pass area from 10am-2pm. See you there!
Summit Lake Avalanche Accident: An avalanche was triggered on Tuesday February 13th by a group of three backcountry skiers on John Mtn. Two of the three people involved sustained injuries and the third did not survive. Our deepest condolences go out to the friends and family of the deceased. A preliminary accident report is available here. CNFAIC will publish a full report by the end of next week.
Sun, February 18th, 2024 |
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Several natural small to large wind slabs were observed throughout this week during the 2/10-15 wind event. More info can be found in Thursdays forecast and recent observations. Most of the avalanches observed this week ranged from D1-D2 in size with crowns up to 12 inches thick with a few upward of 2+ft thick. No recent avalanches have been observed or reported since 2/14-15.
As a result of significant daytime warming with a lack of freezing overnight below 3500ft, a few small wet loose sluffs were observed on Idaho peak and steep southerly aspects on 2/15.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
If you are a Hatcher Pass enthusiast and were not hiding in a cave or on the beach in Hawaii this week you likely experienced the intense and sustained winds that devastated the landscape, scoured ridges, eroded snow surfaces, built wind slabs, and contributed to a recent avalanche cycle from 2/10-2/15. The good news is winds finally diminished on 2/16. The bad news is conditions are less than ideal. Expect to find minimal powder, thin wind skins, breakable and stiff impenetrable wind hardened surfaces, sastrugi, scalloping and more!
Expect wind slabs to be less reactive and more stubborn to trigger the further out we get from strong and extreme winds earlier in the week. Triggering a wind slab 6 to 12″ thick, and up to 2+ ft thick in specific locations will be possible today on southwest to northeast (clockwise) aspects at upper elevation, on slopes 35° and steeper. Large avalanches will be possible to trigger in isolated terrain. Warmer temperatures combined with less intense wind will make triggering an avalanche unlikely at mid and low elevation.
The most likely location to trigger an avalanche today will be wind loaded terrain and cross loaded features below cornices and gully side walls. Wind slabs will be more likely to trigger where the snowpack is shallower and the weight of a human or snowmachine can affect the weak layers. Stiff snow overlying weaker snow will be easy to identify visually or with a pole or probe. Shooting cracks and whumping are red flags for this problem.
The majority of dense stiff wind slabs we investigated this week are sitting on rounding facets. We expect wind slabs to continue to heal and become more stubborn while heinous riding conditions will linger for awhile. Finding locations where riding is worth driving for will be few and far between today but does exist in lower angle protected terrain.
Wet Loose Avalanche
Over the past 6 days low elevation has experienced unseasonably warm day and nighttime temperatures ranging from 34 to 43ºF combined with a lack of freezing overnight below 2500 ft. As of 5 am this morning Frostbite station is reporting slightly cooler temps overnight but still hovering around freezing. Although it is typically not on our radar to think about wet snow avalanches in February, it will be possible to trigger small wet loose sluffs in terrain 40º and steeper below 2500 ft. Expect warmer temperatures to persist through the weekend and to contribute to snow surfaces softening and wet avalanche problems.
There are lots of warning signs that snow surfaces are beginning to warm and wet loose avalanches are possible: