Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Sat, February 17th, 2024 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, February 18th, 2024 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Allie Barker
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

A MODERATE avalanche hazard exists for wind slabs above 3500 ft where triggering a small to large avalanche remains possible.  Triggering a wind slab below 3500 ft will be unlikely.

After 5 days of strong wind, snow surfaces resemble walking on the moon especially above 3500ft.

Warmer temperatures will persist throughout the weekend and contribute to softening snow surfaces below 2500 ft with temperatures expected to reach nearly 40ºF.

Today will be a good character building day if you get out in the mountains.

 

Special Announcements

Permanent Fund Dividend applications are available from January 1 to March 31. If you have already applied, Alaskans may choose to add or adjust their pledges online through August 31. Thank you for considering HPAC as a pledge recipient!

Join HPAC for Winter Discovery Day on February 24, 2024. We’ll be at Skeetawk offering rescue gear practice and avalanche awareness information. The event is free and family friendly.  Activities are happening at multiple trailheads in the Hatcher Pass area from 10am-2pm. See you there!

Summit Lake Avalanche Accident:  An avalanche was triggered on Tuesday February 13th by a group of three backcountry skiers on John Mtn. Two of the three people involved sustained injuries and the third did not survive. Our deepest condolences go out to the friends and family of the deceased. A preliminary accident report is available here. CNFAIC will publish a full report by the end of next week.

Sat, February 17th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Sun, February 18th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Sun, February 18th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

Several natural small to large wind slabs were observed throughout this week during the 2/10-15 wind event. More info can be found in Thursdays forecast and recent observations. Most of the avalanches observed this week ranged from D1-D2 in size with crowns up to 12 inches thick with a few upward of 2+ft thick. No recent avalanches have been observed or reported since 2/14-15.

HS-N-D2-O Natural avalanche on the backside of Frostbite. Likely occurred 2/14 N 3400′ Photo: Adam Smith

 

HS-N-D1.5/2-O Natural wind slab on Hatch peak N 4000′ 2.14.24

As a result of significant daytime warming with a lack of freezing overnight below 3500ft, a few small wet loose sluffs were observed on Idaho peak and steep southerly aspects on 2/15.

Few small wet loose naturals were observed on Idaho Peak that occurred on 2.15 S 3000′.

 

HS-N-D2-O Large natural D2 wind slab in Archangel 2/Firn path off of Marmot that went naturally on 2.14.24

 

Same avalanche (as above pic) showing debris that crossed Archangel trail this week.

 

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Wind Slabs
    Wind Slabs
  • Aspect/Elevation
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Aspect/Elevation of the Avalanche Problem
Specialists develop a graphic representation of the potential distribution of a particular avalanche problem across the topography. This aspect/elevation rose is used to indicate where the particular avalanche problem is thought to exist on all elevation aspects. Areas where the avalanche problem is thought to exist are colored grey, and it is less likely to be encountered in areas colored white.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

If you are a Hatcher Pass enthusiast and were not hiding in a cave or on the beach in Hawaii this week you likely experienced the intense and sustained winds that devastated the landscape, scoured ridges, eroded snow surfaces, built wind slabs, and contributed to a recent avalanche cycle from 2/10-2/15. The good news is winds finally diminished on 2/16. The bad news is conditions are less than ideal. Expect to find minimal powder, thin wind skins, breakable and stiff impenetrable wind hardened surfaces, sastrugi, scalloping and more!

Expect wind slabs to be less reactive and more stubborn to trigger the further out we get from strong and extreme winds earlier in the week.  Triggering a wind slab 6 to 12″ thick, and up to 2+ ft thick in specific locations will be possible today on southwest to northeast (clockwise) aspects at upper elevation, on slopes 35° and steeper. Large avalanches will be possible to trigger in isolated terrain. Warmer temperatures combined with less intense wind will make triggering an avalanche unlikely at mid and low elevation.

The most likely location to trigger an avalanche today will be wind loaded terrain and cross loaded features below cornices and gully side walls.  Wind slabs will be more likely to trigger where the snowpack is shallower and the weight of a human or snowmachine can affect the weak layers. Stiff snow overlying weaker snow will be easy to identify visually or with a pole or probe.  Shooting cracks and whumping are red flags for this problem.

Willow (motorized) side of Hatcher Pass near backside of Eldorado Bowl. Large natural wind slab likely occurred 2/14 SW aspect 4000′.          Photo: Brent Bryne

The majority of dense stiff wind slabs we investigated this week are sitting on rounding facets.  We expect wind slabs to continue to heal and become more stubborn while heinous riding conditions will linger for awhile. Finding locations where riding is worth driving for will be few and far between today but does exist in lower angle protected terrain.

2.16.24 Its all scoured and loaded! E face of Eldorado 4000′.

 

Wet Loose Avalanche

Over the past 6 days low elevation has experienced unseasonably warm day and nighttime temperatures ranging from 34 to 43ºF combined with a lack of freezing overnight below 2500 ft.  As of 5 am this morning Frostbite station is reporting slightly cooler temps overnight but still hovering around freezing.  Although it is typically not on our radar to think about wet snow avalanches in February, it will be possible to trigger small wet loose sluffs in terrain 40º and steeper below 2500 ft.  Expect warmer temperatures to persist through the weekend and to contribute to snow surfaces softening and wet avalanche problems.

There are lots of warning signs that snow surfaces are beginning to warm and wet loose avalanches are possible:

  • Any natural avalanches, often these can be found underneath rock bands
  • If you see or cause roller balls and pinwheels
  • If you can easily make a snowball and your gloves get wet
Weather
Sat, February 17th, 2024

NWS AVG Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

Marmot Weather Station here.

Independence Mine Snotel here.

Frostbite Bottom Snotel here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

XC trail grooming report for Mat-Su, Anchorage, and Kenai here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass