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The avalanche hazard is MODERATE for PERSISTENT SLABS at mid and upper elevations on all aspects on slopes 35° or steeper.
A MODERATE hazard exists for WET LOOSE avalanches on steep solar aspects at all elevations, this hazard will be most pronounced during the heat of the day.
Conditions out there are pretty user friendly. Good turns are easy to find but pockets of instability still exist on both northerly and southerly aspects. Safe travel techniques will keep you out of trouble for the most part, but read the forecast to get the whole picture.
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Yesterday our forecast team observed some isolated wet loose activity on Microdot, likely naturally triggered from solar warming during the day on Tuesday.
We were able to kick off some small wind loaded pockets isolated to the ridgeline on our way up 4600’ yesterday. This instability is more indicative of recent activity which is becoming more difficult to find.
Relatively few parties have been out over the last few days, limiting observations. If you’re out and about this weekend let us know what you see!
A few sunny days and a couple inches of recent snow have improved riding conditions significantly. Soft, supportable turns are easy to find on the north half of the compass. While some southerly facing slopes have picked up a crust and were exposed to more recent periods of wind, skiing in these locations can still be smooth, edgeable, and enjoyable.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
A persistent slab hazard exists on all aspects, generally on slopes steeper than 35°, where it’s possible to trigger an avalanche 4-12’’ deep on a number of previously buried weak layers of snow. Below we break down the problem on shady versus sunny aspects.
There’s no denying that the snowpack at Hatcher Pass is relatively thin. With a thin snowpack comes strong temperature gradients and faceted snow. Over the course of the season periods of wind, sun, and warm temperatures have formed crusts that are now buried throughout the snowpack. These crusts help concentrate the temperature gradient and drive faceting around these layers. This might sound complicated but we’ll explain what it means for you here.
On the north half of the compass the biggest hazard is still triggering a lingering weak layer of graupel that fell with last week’s snow. Less likely but still possible is triggering an avalanche on a slightly deeper layer buried under some of the wind slabs that formed earlier in the month. These avalanches would be generally 6-12 inches deep and 30-50 feet wide and most likely found on windloaded, convex, northerly facing slopes.
On southerly aspects the snowpack is drastically different but the problem is similar. Here the snowpack is layered with a myriad of crusts that formed from rain events, temperature inversions, and the increasingly strong sun. Snowpit tests in these locations revealed there is a possibility of triggering an avalanche on a faceted layer of snow between two of these crusts about 12’’ down. While we haven’t seen much activity that relates to this problem directly, the structure and strength of the snowpack indicate it could be an issue. Additionally, periods of sun and warm temperatures have and will continue to make a more cohesive slab which increases the likelihood of triggering a slide.
If that sounds like a lot, don’t worry. This problem should be relatively manageable with safe travel etiquette and appropriate terrain choices. Ski one at a time, and if the slope you’re on is getting warm, move to cooler aspects.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Warm temps and full sun will initiate wet loose activity on steep solar aspects. This activity could start as rollerballs and pinwheels but easily fan out and gouge into older, deeper layers of the snow as it moves down the hill.
It’s looking like a beautiful weekend with partly cloudy skies and temps in the mid to upper 20’s. The sun is starting to get higher and gain strength rapidly. 25° can feel like 55° on a sunny day and any slopes exposed to the direct sun could become unstable with the warming. Luckily, overnight temps have and look to remain cool which will limit this activity but also lead to frozen surfaces on steep southerly slopes.
The problem with wet loose activity is that it can entrain so much snow as it moves down the slope that a slide that starts out from a small rollerball can easily become large enough to bury, injure, or kill. Avoid sunny slopes during the heat of the day and if the slope you’re on is getting warm, sticky, or unsupportable consider changing aspects.
This morning temps are cool at 11° at Marmot with light winds out of the E/SE. We picked up 1-3’’ of new snow late Thursday that was generally too light and fluffy to even be measurable at local Snotel sites. Temperatures earlier that day topped out at 27° and the sun helped form a crust on solar aspects.
High clouds and a chance for snow will rapidly diminish this morning as a shortwave ridge moves into the area for the next few days. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected throughout the weekend and into Monday with temps in the mid to upper 20’s.
Low pressure returns to the area Tuesday with increasing chances for snow.
NWS AVG Forecast here.
NWS point forecast here.
Marmot Weather Station here.
Independence Mine Snotel here.
Frostbite Bottom Snotel here.
State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.
XC trail grooming report for Mat-Su, Anchorage, and Kenai here.