Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Sat, April 1st, 2023 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, April 2nd, 2023 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Tim Rogers
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche hazard is MODERATE for PERSISTENT SLABS at mid and upper elevations on all aspects on slopes 35° or steeper. 

A MODERATE hazard exists for WET LOOSE avalanches on steep solar aspects at all elevations, this hazard will be most pronounced during the heat of the day. 

Conditions out there are pretty user friendly. Good turns are easy to find but pockets of instability still exist on both northerly and southerly aspects. Safe travel techniques will keep you out of trouble for the most part, but read the forecast to get the whole picture. 

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Sat, April 1st, 2023
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

Yesterday our forecast team observed some isolated wet loose activity on Microdot, likely naturally triggered from solar warming during the day on Tuesday. 

Loose wet avalanche coming out of the rocks on Microdot from Tuesday.

We were able to kick off some small wind loaded pockets isolated to the ridgeline on our way up 4600’ yesterday. This instability is more indicative of recent activity which is becoming more difficult to find.

Cracking and some reactivity observed isolated to the ridgeline. 4k ft E/SE facing.

Relatively few parties have been out over the last few days, limiting observations. If you’re out and about this weekend let us know what you see!

Recent Conditions

A few sunny days and a couple inches of recent snow have improved riding conditions significantly. Soft, supportable turns are easy to find on the north half of the compass. While some southerly facing slopes have picked up a crust and were exposed to more recent periods of wind, skiing in these locations can still be smooth, edgeable, and enjoyable. 

Good coverage and quality conditions will be found this weekend.

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Persistent Slabs
    Persistent Slabs
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

A persistent slab hazard exists on all aspects, generally on slopes steeper than 35°, where it’s possible to trigger an avalanche 4-12’’ deep on a number of previously buried weak layers of snow. Below we break down the problem on shady versus sunny aspects. 

There’s no denying that the snowpack at Hatcher Pass is relatively thin. With a thin snowpack comes strong temperature gradients and faceted snow. Over the course of the season periods of wind, sun, and warm temperatures have formed crusts that are now buried throughout the snowpack. These crusts help concentrate the temperature gradient and drive faceting around these layers. This might sound complicated but we’ll explain what it means for you here. 

On the north half of the compass the biggest hazard is still triggering a lingering weak layer of graupel that fell with last week’s snow. Less likely but still possible is triggering an avalanche on a slightly deeper layer buried under some of the wind slabs that formed earlier in the month. These avalanches would be generally 6-12 inches deep and 30-50 feet wide and most likely found on windloaded, convex, northerly facing slopes. 

On southerly aspects the snowpack is drastically different but the problem is similar. Here the snowpack is layered with a myriad of crusts that formed from rain events, temperature inversions, and the increasingly strong sun. Snowpit tests in these locations revealed there is a possibility of triggering an avalanche on a faceted layer of snow between two of these crusts about 12’’ down. While we haven’t seen much activity that relates to this problem directly, the structure and strength of the snowpack indicate it could be an issue. Additionally, periods of sun and warm temperatures have and will continue to make a more cohesive slab which increases the likelihood of triggering a slide. 

The layered cake that is the south facing snowpack.

If that sounds like a lot, don’t worry. This problem should be relatively manageable with safe travel etiquette and appropriate terrain choices. Ski one at a time, and if the slope you’re on is getting warm, move to cooler aspects. 

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Wet Loose
    Wet Loose
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Wet Loose
Wet Loose avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

Warm temps and full sun will initiate wet loose activity on steep solar aspects. This activity could start as rollerballs and pinwheels but easily fan out and gouge into older, deeper layers of the snow as it moves down the hill. 

It’s looking like a beautiful weekend with partly cloudy skies and temps in the mid to upper 20’s. The sun is starting to get higher and gain strength rapidly. 25° can feel like 55° on a sunny day and any slopes exposed to the direct sun could become unstable with the warming. Luckily, overnight temps have and look to remain cool which will limit this activity but also lead to frozen surfaces on steep southerly slopes. 

The problem with wet loose activity is that it can entrain so much snow as it moves down the slope that a slide that starts out from a small rollerball can easily become large enough to bury, injure, or kill. Avoid sunny slopes during the heat of the day and if the slope you’re on is getting warm, sticky, or unsupportable consider changing aspects. 

Weather
Sat, April 1st, 2023

This morning temps are cool at 11° at Marmot with light winds out of the E/SE. We picked up 1-3’’ of new snow late Thursday that was generally too light and fluffy to even be measurable at local Snotel sites. Temperatures earlier that day topped out at 27° and the sun helped form a crust on solar aspects. 

Daytime highs in the mid and upper 20’s over the last week on Marmot.

High clouds and a chance for snow will rapidly diminish this morning as a shortwave ridge moves into the area for the next few days. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected throughout the weekend and into Monday with temps in the mid to upper 20’s. 

Sunny days ahead!

Low pressure returns to the area Tuesday with increasing chances for snow. 

 

NWS AVG Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

Marmot Weather Station here.

Independence Mine Snotel here.

Frostbite Bottom Snotel here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

XC trail grooming report for Mat-Su, Anchorage, and Kenai here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass