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Avalanche Warning
Issued: April 4, 2021 9:00 amTravel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. Avoid being on or beneath all steep slopes. |
Update at 9am: An AVALANCHE WARNING is in effect. The avalanche danger has been elevated to HIGH. HUMAN TRIGGERED avalanches are VERY LIKELY. NATURALS are LIKELY. VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. Travel in Avalanche Terrain is not recommended today. The Hatcher Pass road is closed at Gold Mint. Please respect the closure for your safety.
HP has received 6″ of snow overnight into this morning with almost 1″ of water, combined with SSW winds gusting 20-34 mph for 12 hrs. 5″ to 12″ of snow are expected today with SW winds changing to WNW this evening with gusts upwards of 30mph.
Several human triggered avalanches were reported on Thursday and Friday, large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
For more information on recent avalanches , see Saturdays forecast HERE.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Persistent slabs, up to 2′ feet deep, will be very likely to human trigger today on NW to NE aspects and up to 12″ inches deep on E to S to W aspects at all elevations today. Naturals will be likely.
3-4″ of snow overnight combined with moderate to strong SSW wind gusts have built and will continue to build wind slabs on NW through NE aspects today. 5-12″ of additional snow are forecasted for today combined with strong wind gusts expected to shift from South to W/NW tonight. There is some uncertainty with this storm, but it is likely to increase the avalanche danger. Todays biggest concern will be wind slabs stepping down into the persistent slab on NW to E aspects where the facet/drizzle crust is buried.
Persistent slabs are sitting on a widespread weak sugary faceted layer on top of a widespread sun crust/drizzle crust combo in many locations at Hatcher Pass. The key take away is that the current hazard is already elevated with slab avalanche problems and will be exacerbated with any additional new load today. Whumping, cracking, collapsing, and recent avalanches are RED FLAGS for this avalanche problem.
This is an unusual set up for Hatcher Pass for April. Unfortunately this problem is not going away and will likely get worse before it gets better.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Wind slabs, 4″ to 6″ thick, will be very likely to human trigger today on NW, N, and NE aspects at mid and upper elevation. Naturals will be likely. Wind slabs will be building and increasing in size throughout the day with additional snow and wind in the forecast. Wind slabs will have the potential to step down into the PERSISTENT SLAB and fail 18″ to 24″ deep, increasing the size and consequence of the avalanche.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Small to Large Dry loose sluffs will be likely to human trigger today at all elevations, on steep slopes above 40º. Naturals will be possible. The size of sluffs will increase today with another 5″ to 12″ of snow forecasted throughout the day. Getting sluffed into a terrain trap will increase the size and consequence of any avalanche.
HP received approximately 3-4" of snow overnight with .6" of water. Temperatures increased from 20ºF to 27ºF overnight at 3550'and hovered in the 20'sF at 4500'. Winds SSW gusted 20-34 mph for 8 hours overnight.
Southcentral Alaska Mountain Forecast NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Anchorage AK 408 AM AKDT Sun Apr 4 2021
Today Tonight Temp at 1000` 27-33 F 3 F Temp at 3000` 26 F 7-23 F Chance of precip 100% 80% Precip amount (above 1000 FT) 0.64 in 0.11 in Snow amount (above 1000 FT) 4-10 in 1-2 in Snow level 500 ft sea level Wind 3000` ridges SW 15-35 mph NW 10-25 mph Remarks...Snow will continue through this afternoon with the heaviest snow falling through mid to late morning.
NWS Rec Forecast here.
NWS point forecast here.
State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.