Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Thu, April 4th, 2024 - 7:00AM
Expires
Fri, April 5th, 2024 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Allie Barker
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE for PERSISTENT SLABS at all elevations.

Another winter storm will bring an additional 8-12″ of new snow to Hatcher Pass Thursday through Friday. Expect small STORM SLABS to be possible to human trigger above 2500′ in the afternoon as storm totals start to accumulate.

The return to winter combined with a new avalanche problem is a great reason to maintain safe travel protocols to increase your margin of safety.

Thu, April 4th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Fri, April 5th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Fri, April 5th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

Hatcher Pass experienced an exciting and dynamic shift this week with the 3/30-31 Easter Bunny Storm that brought up to 23″ of new snow with 1.8″ SWE combined with winds ESE>SE 27 gusting 31-47mph for 9 hrs on Marmot at 4500′ and ESE>SE 32-41 gusting 40-62mph for 16hrs on Hatch at 4561′. Several natural D1-D2 (small to large) storm slabs and wind slabs were observed and reported, mostly above 3000′. Two remotely triggered avalanches were reported on Monday on the Sunnyside of Hatch and Skyscraper. A third remotely triggered slab avalanche occurred on Bennet’s ridge on Tuesday. This avalanche appeared to have sympathetically triggered an adjacent avalanche.

Another pulse of precipitation is forecasted to bring 8-12″ of new snow Thursday afternoon through Friday above 2500′.

4/3 Human triggered D1 slab avalanche on Peak 4068′ NNW 3600′

 

4/1 Human triggered storm slab on Sunnyside of Hatch that occurred early morning, SSE 4000′ SS-ARu-D2-I

 

4/1 Same photo as above, different angle

 

4/1 Human triggered dry loose sluffs that gained momentum with older faceted snow , Eldorado Bowl>Liams Run NE 4200′

 

4/1 Natural wind slab on main gut of Marmot, left of mid-rid and right of Lodge run, WSW 4400′

 

 

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Persistent Slabs
    Persistent Slabs
  • Aspect/Elevation
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Aspect/Elevation of the Avalanche Problem
Specialists develop a graphic representation of the potential distribution of a particular avalanche problem across the topography. This aspect/elevation rose is used to indicate where the particular avalanche problem is thought to exist on all elevation aspects. Areas where the avalanche problem is thought to exist are colored grey, and it is less likely to be encountered in areas colored white.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

Persistent slabs 6-20″ thick will be possible to human trigger on all aspects, at all elevations, on slopes 30º and steeper.  Natural avalanches are unlikely. Expect slabs to be thinner at low elevation and on southerly aspects, and thicker at upper elevation and northerly aspects.

Over the past few days, three remotely triggered slab avalanches have occurred on east, southeast, and northeast aspects above 3500′. Finding possible locations to trigger a slab will be challenging and will require finding buried weak sugary snow (NSF) sitting on top of firm bed surfaces (wind or melt freeze crusts). This combination of weak layer and bed surface is not widespread and does not exist everywhere.  Shallow spots in the snowpack will be more likely locations to trigger a slab. Remotely triggering an avalanche will be possible due to the continuity of the weak layer that exists in specific locations.

The persistent slab avalanche (photo below) likely occurred on April 2 on Bennet’s Ridge.  4/2 Remotely triggered slab avalanche on Bennet’s Ridge that sympathetically triggered another avalanche NE 3900′

TRAVEL RECOMENDATIONS :

It’s springtime and easy to become complacent especially with the lack of avalanche problems we have seen this season.  Good rules of thumb no matter the avalanche danger include: only expose one person to steep slopes at a time, choose safe zones out of the reach of avalanches for grouping up, always have a spotter in a safe location, everyone carries a beacon, shovel, and probe, and are prepared and practiced for companion rescue.

Lastly, there’s some nice powder out there to recreate in. If you get out and about, send us your avalanche, snow and weather observations HERE. We love your pictures. You can also share by DM’ing us on Facebook @hpavalanche and Instagram @h_p_a_c

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Storm Slabs
    Storm Slabs
  • Aspect/Elevation
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Aspect/Elevation of the Avalanche Problem
Specialists develop a graphic representation of the potential distribution of a particular avalanche problem across the topography. This aspect/elevation rose is used to indicate where the particular avalanche problem is thought to exist on all elevation aspects. Areas where the avalanche problem is thought to exist are colored grey, and it is less likely to be encountered in areas colored white.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

Another winter storm will intensify this afternoon bringing 8-12″ of new snow with up to 1″ SWE to Hatcher Pass Thursday afternoon through Friday. Expect 4-6″ of new snow by end of the day to build small STORM SLABS that will be possible to human trigger on all aspects above 2500′.  Some uncertainty still exists with storm totals. Expect storm slabs to fail on weak sugary facets or graupel sitting on firm crusts.

To identify this avalanche problem use formal stability tests and hand pits to see if the new snow is behaving like a slab.  Shooting cracks and whumping will be a red flag for this avalanche problem.  Storm slabs are typically reactive for a few hours to a couple days.

 

 

Weather
Thu, April 4th, 2024

NWS AVG Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

Marmot Weather Station here.

Independence Mine Snotel here.

Frostbite Bottom Snotel here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

XC trail grooming report for Mat-Su, Anchorage, and Kenai here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass