Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center
Hatcher Pass

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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Thu, November 25th, 2021 - 7:00AM
Expires
Fri, November 26th, 2021 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Jake Kayes
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Human triggered Dry Loose avalanches will be possible today at mid and upper elevations on all aspects. These avalanches will be found in terrain that’s 40° or steeper. Natural avalanches are unlikely.

These avalanches will be small in size but can catch, carry and sweep you into other hazards, if not managed properly. 

Don’t be fooled by the small amount of new snow. Rocks and other hazards are lurking just below the surface.

Special Announcements

Have you heard about the Avalanche Weather Guidance(AVG) from the National Weather Service? The AVG gives a more detailed weather forecast for three separate elevation bands in Hatcher Pass. Also be sure to checkout the HPAC weather tab. Click here for more info

There is still time to apply for the Johnny Soderstrom Memorial Scholarship. Click here for more info. Applications are due tomorrow at 5pm!

Thu, November 25th, 2021
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

There were numerous small human triggered avalanches this week. These avalanches were found on slopes 40° or steeper.

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Dry Loose
    Dry Loose
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Dry Loose
Dry Loose avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.
Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.
Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

Cold, clear weather over the last week has preserved the Loose Dry avalanche problem. These avalanches will be small in size and will be found on all aspects, at mid and upper elevations. You will find Loose Dry avalanches in terrain that’s 40° or steeper. Natural avalanches are unlikely. While these avalanches remain mostly small and are not likely to bury a person, the volume will be large enough to sweep you off your feet and carry you into other hazards.

Folks have skied a significant amount of terrain in Hatcher Pass. On slopes that have been skied heavily, Loose Dry avalanches are less likely. Practice good sluff management if you choose to ride in steep untracked terrain. Know what’s below you, and avoid riding above cliffs, rocks and other hazards.

Cold temps and light winds will continue for the foreseeable future. Without any major changes in the weather you can expect the Loose Dry avalanche problem to continue until a change in weather occurs.

There have been recent light winds at ridge-tops within the last 48 hours. However we have found no evidence of any new wind slabs.

Weather
Thu, November 25th, 2021

NWS Rec Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass