Hatcher Pass Avalanche Forecast
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High Avalanche Danger
Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. Avoid being on or beneath all steep slopes.
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Avalanche Danger is HIGH today above 3500′. A massive storm has rapidly dumped approximately 2 ft of snow with 1.5″ SWE with increasing temperatures and wind over the past 24hrs.
Natural avalanches are likely today. Human triggered avalanches are very likely above 3500′.
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at mid and low elevation.
Wind slabs 2 to 3ft thick will be very likely to human trigger on West to Northeast aspects at upper elevation on slopes 35º and steeper. Natural avalanches are likely.
Persistent slabs 3 to 5 feet deep will be likely to human trigger in specific locations at all elevations on slopes 30º and steeper. Natural avalanches are possible.
A second round of snow is forecasted for Tuesday which will continue to elevate the avalanche danger.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
A massive storm over the last 24hrs accompanied with east winds gusting 17 to 26 mph have built WIND SLABS 2 to 3′ thick on leeward aspects WEST TO NORTHEAST above 3500′ today.
Large natural avalanches are likely, human triggered avalanches are very likely on slopes steeper than 35º.
Wind slabs will have the potential to step down into the basal facets at the ground, increasing the size and consequence of any avalanche.
Weather stations showed minimal winds overnight below 3000′.
Winds have diminished this morning. The snowpack needs time to adjust to the new load. We do not recommend traveling in avalanche terrain today.
Still snowing at 6am as shown here on the Marmot snowstake with approximately 2ft of new snow in the past 24hrs.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Persistent slabs 3 to 5 feet deep will be likely to human trigger in specific locations at all elevations on slopes 30º and steeper. Natural avalanches are possible.
Two persistent slabs exist on all aspects and at all elevations. One is the new snow sitting on a rain crust and the other is the entire snowpack sitting on the basal facets we have been talking about all season. Both are problematic.
We recommend giving the snowpack time to adjust to the new load.
Another round of precipitation on Tuesday will continue to stress and overload weak layers in the snowpack and elevate the avalanche danger.
Snowfall rates are expected to gradually taper off this morning from west to east. However, it is an active pattern and more snow is expected on Tuesday, but not nearly as much as the storm from yesterday into this morning.
NWS AVG Forecast here.
NWS point forecast here.
Marmot Weather Station here.
Independence Mine Snotel here.
State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.