Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center
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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Thu, March 10th, 2022 - 7:00AM
Expires
Fri, March 11th, 2022 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Jake Kayes
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

In the last 24 hours Hatcher Pass has received 9″ of new snow.

Human triggered Storm Slab avalanches are likely at mid and upper elevations, on all aspects on slopes 35 degrees and steeper. 

Human triggered loose dry avalanches are likely at mid and upper elevations on all aspects, in terrain 40 degrees or steeper. 

Natural avalanches are possible.

Special Announcements

Come join HPAC for a screening of the movie, BURIED, at our Beartooth fundraiser Thur March 24th. All new HPAC swag will be available for purchase.

HPAC will continue providing avalanche information till the end of our season April 16.

 

Thu, March 10th, 2022
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
3 - Considerable
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
3 - Considerable
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

No human triggered avalanches were reported this week. On Mar 6th several natural avalanches were observed.

Loose Dry on the Willow side of Eldorado. Photo taken March 6th.

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Storm Slabs
    Storm Slabs
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.
Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

In the last 24 hours, 9 inches of snow has fallen, this new snow has SWE of 1.5″. This new snow will behave like a slab, creating a storm slab problem. Human triggered storm slabs up to 9″ thick are LIKELY at mid and upper elevations and all aspects, on slopes 35º and steeper. Natural avalanches are possible. These avalanches will be small in size. 

To identify this avalanche problem use formal stability tests and hand pits, to see if this new snow is behaving like a slab. Small test slopes will be a tool to observe how your weight affects the snowpack and to see if the new snow is behaving like a slab. Shooting cracks will be a red flag for this avalanche problem.

DOT is working on clearing the road to Gold Mint. As we anticipate having more access to the backcountry, remember that there have been very few travelers in Hatcher Pass recently. Fewer travelers means that there have been minimal observations and less information on the snowpack. If you do choose to venture out in the mountains today, take a slow and thoughtful approach to assessing terrain and the snowpack. If your goal is to travel in steep terrain, start small and slowly work your way into more committing terrain. 

Riding conditions have improved with the last two storms. In some areas old sun and drizzle crusts will be felt.

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Dry Loose
    Dry Loose
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Dry Loose
Dry Loose avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.
Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.
Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

With all this new snow, human triggered Loose Dry avalanches will be likely at mid and upper elevations and all aspects on slopes 40º and steeper. Natural avalanches are possible. In some locations this new snow will sit on top of old sun crusts and drizzle crusts. Where these crusts exist Loose Dry avalanches will be able to gain speed quickly. Sluff management will be important if you choose to venture out into steeper terrain. Even a small avalanche can have severe consequences if traveling above terrain traps. 

 

Weather
Thu, March 10th, 2022

NWS AVG Forecast here.

NWS Rec Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass