Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Sat, January 6th, 2024 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, January 7th, 2024 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Allie Barker
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche hazard is LOW today at all elevations.

Human triggering small dry loose sluffs on steep slopes or small wind slabs near ridgeline will be possible in isolated and extreme terrain.

Mild temperatures, low wind speeds, sunshine and excellent riding conditions are on the menu for today.

Cross your fingers for another small pulse of precipitation late Sunday.

Special Announcements

It’s that time of year again for bunny boots, beer, and boogying. Come join us for the 6th Annual HPAC Cabin Fever Reliever on Saturday, February 10th. More info and tickets HERE. 

Filing your PFD? Did you know HPAC is an official Pick.Click.Give organization? Please consider donating a portion of your 2024 PFD to invest in public safety through avalanche forecasting and education in Hatcher Pass!

 

 

Sat, January 6th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Sun, January 7th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Sun, January 7th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

A few small natural and human triggered dry loose avalanches (sluffs) were observed on 1/4 and 1/5.

No recent slab avalanches have been observed or reported this week.

1/5 Human triggered dry loose sluff ENE 4500′ Ramps above Martin Mine

 

1/5 4000′ ENE Martin Mine, Natural dry loose sluff

 

1/5 Same avalanche as above picture. 4000′ ENE Martin Mine, Natural dry loose sluff

1/4 3800′ WSW Marmot, natural small dry loose sluffs

1/4 Same sluff as above picture on Marmot near the Lodge Run

1/4 Same sluff as above picture on Marmot near the Lodge Run

 

 

 

Recent Conditions

1/5 Snow surfaces on most ridgelines resembles walking on the moon and requires excellent edging technique. Fortunately, conditions improve rapidly once descending! 4600′

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Normal Caution
    Normal Caution
Normal Caution
Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.
More info at Avalanche.org

It has been 14 days since the last human triggered slab avalanche and unlike the Chugach, almost 3 weeks since the last big storm cycle. Small incremental storms combined with short duration wind events have contributed to an usually stable snowpack for Hatcher Pass.

Hatcher Pass received 3″ of new snow on Thursday which improved riding conditions considerably without contributing to instability. The likelihood of triggering an avalanche today is unlikely but not impossible.

A couple inches of new snow is on the radar for Sunday and Monday accompanied by a slight increase in wind.

 

DRY LOOSE AVALANCHE

On Thursday we were able to trigger a small sluff on 40º and steeper terrain at upper elevation. We also kicked off a small wind slab on a leeward ridgeline that entrained approximately 3″ of new snow sitting on top of old weak sugary snow. Expect sluffs to be small and manageable and run faster on smooth firm bed surfaces that exist mostly on steep southerly aspects.

WIND SLAB AVALANCHE

Despite moderate winds with strong gusts at upper elevation on Thursday, the duration and intensity did not contribute to new wind slab formation. Intermittent winds earlier in the week scoured and wind affected upper elevation ridgelines, cross loaded southeast to southwest aspects, and built thin wind slabs on west to north aspects just below ridgeline in passes and gaps above 4000 ft. For the most part, wind slabs remain patchy, isolated, stubborn and lack continuity which means you are unlikely to trigger one.  Be on the lookout for lingering slabs, stiff snow over softer snow, and cracks that shoot out from you.

Observations from Friday here

 

Weather
Sat, January 6th, 2024

This graph above shows winds this week on Marmot at 4500′. Mostly moderate winds with some strong gusts transported snow without contributing to the avalanche problem.

NWS AVG Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

Marmot Weather Station here.

Independence Mine Snotel here.

Frostbite Bottom Snotel here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

XC trail grooming report for Mat-Su, Anchorage, and Kenai here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass