Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Thu, January 11th, 2024 - 7:00AM
Expires
Fri, January 12th, 2024 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Ryan Lewthwaite
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

On all aspects and elevations the avalanche danger remains LOW.

Small human triggered Loose Dry avalanches are possible in steep isolated terrain at upper elevation.

You can find the best riding conditions on slopes in the mid and low elevations that were protected from the wind.

Special Announcements

It’s that time of year again for bunny boots, beer, and boogying. Come join us for the 6th Annual HPAC Cabin Fever Reliever on Saturday, February 10th. More info and tickets HERE.

Thu, January 11th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Fri, January 12th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Fri, January 12th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

Numerous natural and human triggered Loose Dry avalanches have been observed in the upper elevation that incorporated old faceted snow and recent snow from 1/8/24.

Several wind slab avalanches which likely occurred on 1/6-7/24, after a 15 hour period of strong southeast winds, can be found on north through west aspects in the upper elevations.

Small Loose Dry Avalanches on Gold Cord Peak 4700ft west aspect 1/10/24

Small Loose Dry Avalanches on Gold Cord Peak 4700ft west aspect 1/10/24

Natural dry loose, Skyscraper peak NE 4500′ 1/9/24

Idaho Peak dry loose sluffs , SW 4400′ with high marks on Divide Ridge 1/9/24

Natural wind slab at the top of Stairstep W 3800′ , likely occurred on 1/6-7/24

Old natural wind slab likely from strong winds on 1/6-7, Eldoradop Bowl NW 4000′

Recent Conditions
Surface conditions in Eldorado Bowl North aspect 1/9/24

Surface conditions in Eldorado Bowl North aspect 1/9/24

Cornices and Wind Affected Snow on Friendship Pass 4800 feet 1/10/24

Cornices and Wind Affected Snow on Friendship Pass 4800 feet 1/10/24

Avalanche Problem 1

While the majority of our snowpack in Hatcher Pass remains at a LOW avalanche danger, there is some variability with surface conditions especially in the upper elevation. On January 8th we received 3 inches of new light snow that fell on firm surfaces near and below exposed ridgelines. Recent evidence of both natural and human triggered Loose Dry avalanches has been observed in terrain steeper than 40° on numerous different aspects over the last three days. Faceting of this surface snow is making it less cohesive and easier to trigger in steep and isolated terrain features.

On the evening of January 6th into the morning of the 7th, southeast winds blew moderate with strong gusts at both Marmot and Hatch Peak weather stations. This event scoured exposed windward slopes and ridgelines, leaving behind hard snow surfaces and slabs up to 10 inches thick on leeward aspects. Several Wind Slab avalanches naturally occurred on west through north aspects after these eroding winds in the upper elevation. This left behind a firm and supportable wind-packed surface on and just below ridgelines. Faceting during the cold and clear weather has begun to decompose these slabs making them unconsolidated and weaker. Currently this is not an immediate problem, but could be something to consider when we get future accumulations that could overload these buried weak layers.

Overall skiing and riding quality is good with a couple minor exceptions. The likelihood of triggering a loose dry sluff may be increasing as more faceting occurs over the next couple days with cold & dry conditions. If you are traveling in terrain over 40° on west through north aspects, consider your ability to manage a small sluff while assessing the amount of potential snow that could be entrained on your chosen slope. As you ascend in the upper elevation, pay close attention to the texture of the wind drifted snow, anticipating that it may be difficult to gain purchase on firm surfaces.

Weather
Thu, January 11th, 2024

NWS AVG Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

Marmot Weather Station here.

Independence Mine Snotel here.

Frostbite Bottom Snotel here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

XC trail grooming report for Mat-Su, Anchorage, and Kenai here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass