Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

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Issued
Sat, January 18th, 2020 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, January 19th, 2020 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
HPAC Staff
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Human triggering small slab avalanches in many locations will be the problem to avoid this weekend.

Persistent slabs will be stubborn, but possible to human trigger, 2-6″ thick, generally small in size, at mid and upper elevations on a variety of aspects.  You will find thicker and larger persistent slabs on the prevailing leeward aspects, southwest to west, and smaller slabs on all other aspects.

Many peaks were top loaded, but be careful to also identify the presence of persistent slabs on cross loaded features, especially in the mid elevation band.

Cornices are large and overhanging. We recommend limiting your exposure to this lower probability, but high consequence, hazard.

Special Announcements

JAN 25 – Come help us launch the New HPAC Avalanche Ale at the Bearpaw River Brewing Company from 12-8pm. $1 from every beer goes to support avalanche forecasting at Hatcher Pass.   

FEB 8– Come support HPAC at our 11th Annual Cabin Fever Reliever and Fundraiser at the Moose Lodge in Palmer, Saturday, Feb 8 at 5:30 pm. Live music, silent auction, local food and libations. Buy your tickets online NOW at: https://cabinfeverreliever.bpt.me

Sat, January 18th, 2020
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

Numerous dry loose sluffs were observed earlier in the week after 4+” of new snow on the 12-13th.  See pics and info HERE.

The mighty Matanuska winds averaged E/NE 24 mph, gusting E/NE 19-40 mph at 4500′ on the 15th and 16th, forming wind slabs on a variety of aspects at mid and upper elevations. Several small natural slabs, 2-10″ deep, were observed on the 15th and 16th.

1/15-16 – Marmot, Rae Wallace, North, 4500´, small natural slab avalanche

 

1/15-16 – Marmot, Southeast, 3500′, Cross-loaded feature, small natural slab avalanche

 

1/15-16 – Marmot, Southwest face, 3900, small slab avalanche in gut of gully.

 

1/15-16 – Marmot, Southwest face, 4150´, adjacent to “mid-rib”, large natural avalanche.

 

1/15-16 – Pinnacle shoulder, West, 5800´, small natural slab avalanche

 

1/15-16 – Skyscraper, North, 4200´, Small natural slab avalanche

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Persistent Slabs
    Persistent Slabs
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

Persistent slabs will be stubborn, but possible to trigger today at mid and upper elevation on a variety of aspects. They will generally be 2-6″ thick, failing on weaker snow.

Shooting cracks, hollow sounding snow, stiffer snow overlying weaker snow, and recent avalanches are bulls eye clues for identifying this problem.

Yesterday/Friday – Upper Willow Creek, Bullion Mountain, SE, 4200´. We witnessed a snow machine trigger a small slab mid-slope. This was consistent with what we observed throughout our tour on Friday. We observed numerous recent natural small slab avalanches on a variety of aspects. We were able to trigger, stubborn, small, and thin slabs in specific locations.

Moderate northeast to east winds, with sustained strong wind gusts up to 40 mph, on January 15th and 16th, scoured windward aspects and deposited wind drifted snow on leeward aspects, generally southwest to west aspects, and cross loaded features. While most of the avalanche problem is located at the upper elevation ridgelines and starting zones, there are plenty of persistent slabs located on cross loaded features, at mid-elevation, and mid-slope.

Anticipate slabs to be thicker, up to 1 foot deep, and larger in isolated areas near the Arkose ridgeline. In these locations we have no recent boots-on-the-ground field observations, but we did observe higher wind speeds and more steady flagging in this area from afar. We have seen more natural activity of similar size to the East of the road system, near Delia Creek. We also verified stronger winds through the Matanuska River Valley, which helps to corroborate this hypothesis.

Numerous natural slab avalanches released on January 15th and 16th. Since then, winds have diminished and the avalanche problem has been slowly stabilizing. We expect this hazard to linger through the weekend, while stability continues to slowly increase.

Additional Concern
  • Cornice
    Cornice
Cornice
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
More info at Avalanche.org

Due to plentiful snow this season and recent strong wind, cornices are overhanging and large.

Cornices are difficult to predict the timing of natural release. There have already been a few releases this season involving people and old cornice debris and large chunks are present at the base of some slopes. If traveling under cornices, limit the time of your exposure. If you are approaching cornices from behind, use extreme caution, gain a safe viewpoint to identify safe entries onto slopes below, and do not step out on overhanging cornice features.

Cornice failures may be large, and the mass of a cornice may be large enough to injure or kill a person. Cornices may also entrain more snow and trigger additional avalanche types, which could compound the hazard.

Cornices are large, overhanging and hungry. This one overhangs the Pinnopsicle, North Coulior of Pinnacle, and is trying to eat all of the Talkeetnas.

Weather
Sat, January 18th, 2020

High pressure, clear skies, cold temps and light winds forecasted for today.

A low pressure system will be moving into our region early this week. Temps are expected to rise into the 20°F’s with some cloud cover and light winds on Sunday and Monday, with Tuesday bringing more clouds and a chance for a light dusting of new snow. Winds are forecasted to be light through  Tuesday.

Later in the week, arctic high pressure and cold temps in the single digits will follow.

With relatively mild weather and no rapid changes to the snowpack this weekend we expect the avalanche hazard to remain the same, and for the persistent slab problem to improve very slowly. The question for new snow early this week will be, how will new snow bond to the pre-existing snow surface?


NWS Rec Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

Observations
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