Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Sat, January 20th, 2024 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, January 21st, 2024 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Allie Barker
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE for lingering wind slabs on southeast through west aspects above 2500 ft.  Below 2500 ft the avalanche danger is LOW.

This week’s wind event changed conditions in many locations from epic powder to the more familiar variable conditions Hatcher is famous for.

Terrain protected from the wind will be the best and most enjoyable riding today.

Another short pulse of strong wind combined with cold temperatures is forecasted for Saturday evening through Sunday.

Special Announcements

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Sat, January 20th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Sun, January 21st, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Sun, January 21st, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

One human triggered slab avalanche was reported up Archangel in Goodhope Basin on Friday. Observation and more details here. 

The bulk of the avalanche activity this week occurred on Wednesday with numerous small natural wind slabs and small to large loose dry avalanches. See observations here. 

1/19 Human triggered Wind Slab avalanche on West aspect at 5000 ft SS-AR-R1-D1-I

 

1/19 Slab avalanche up Archangel Valley

 

1/19 Pinnacle Valley, Archangel side W 4700′

 

Naturals, SW 3500′ likely occurred 1/17

 

Recent Conditions

1/19 Snow sculpted surfaces on lower Eldorado from Wednesday’s wind 3700′

 

1/19 Scoured ridges and wind loaded gullies exist on the east face of Skyscraper 4000′

 

Old wind slabs and sluffs from 1/17 up Archangel SW 4000′

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Wind Slabs
    Wind Slabs
  • Aspect/Elevation
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Aspect/Elevation of the Avalanche Problem
Specialists develop a graphic representation of the potential distribution of a particular avalanche problem across the topography. This aspect/elevation rose is used to indicate where the particular avalanche problem is thought to exist on all elevation aspects. Areas where the avalanche problem is thought to exist are colored grey, and it is less likely to be encountered in areas colored white.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

Expect lingering wind slabs up to 10″ deep to be possible to human trigger at mid and upper elevation, near ridgelines and cross loaded features, on southeast to west aspects (clockwise) on slopes 35º and steeper.  Wind slabs have been soft and trending from reactive to stubborn over the last couple days. Although unlikely, it will be possible for a wind slab to step down into deeper persistent weak layers (sugary snow) up to 2 feet deep in isolated or extreme terrain.  These avalanches will be small to large in size.  Natural avalanches are unlikely.

Weather earlier in the week brought strong wind on Wednesday and moderate winds on Thursday that built wind slabs, mostly 1 to 4 inches thick. Fortunately, winds were less intense than forecasted and resulted in a short lived avalanche cycle but still capable of affecting riding quality due to the amount of low density snow from 1/13-14 that was available for transport.  The majority of avalanche activity was observed on Wednesday with numerous natural small wind slabs.

A wind slab avalanche was triggered on Friday that caught and carried a person and potentially stepped down, failing in deeper weak layers 1 to 2 ft deep.

1/19 Human triggered Wind Slab avalanche on West aspect at 5000 ft SS-AR-R1-D1-I . An adjacent natural wind slab can be seen to lookers right that likely happened on Wednesday.

Use hand pits and pole probes to identify lingering wind slabs. Look for hard snow sitting over weaker snow, smooth and rounded or lens shaped features.  Shooting cracks or whumping are signs of instability and indicators of this avalanche problem.

As always we recommend carrying the appropriate rescue gear and knowing how to use it. Safe travel techniques are important every time we travel in avalanche terrain. This means spreading out when ascending slopes, descending one at a time, and regrouping well outside of the runout zone.


Loose Dry Avalanche

It will be possible to trigger small sluffs in steep terrain greater than 40º in wind sheltered locations on all aspects and elevations in isolated or extreme terrain. It is also possible for a wind slab to trigger a small sluff, increasing the size and consequence of the avalanche.  Even a small loose dry avalanche may be able to sweep you off your feet and carry you into other hazards.  Small dry loose avalanches can be mitigated safely with appropriate slope cutting techniques.

 

Weather
Sat, January 20th, 2024

NWS AVG Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

Marmot Weather Station here.

Independence Mine Snotel here.

Frostbite Bottom Snotel here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

XC trail grooming report for Mat-Su, Anchorage, and Kenai here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass