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The avalanche danger has increased to CONSIDERABLE for Wind Slabs up to 10 inches deep in specific locations above 3500 feet.
A MODERATE danger for Loose Dry avalanches exists in terrain steeper than 40° on all aspects and elevations.
Strong winds are actively transporting the recent snow onto aspects which face east through west and cross-loaded terrain, where it will continue to form sensitive slabs capable of burying a person.
Reevaluate the snowpack regularly and choose terrain with a conservative mindset.
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Fri, January 19th, 2024 |
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
~On 1/17 while booting-up in the Independence Lot we witnessed a wind slab avalanche above Martin Mine which sympathetically released an adjacent slab avalanche.
~A small wind slab avalanche broke in our vicinity as we evaluated a previous avalanche near the lower flank of Eldorado Bowl.
~We intentionally triggered a wind slab avalanche on a small test slope in a steep drainage below Eldorado Bowl while skinning back to the parking lot.
~Numerous small to large loose dry sluffs have been observed in steep terrain since the new snow on 1/13-14.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
4 to 10 inch thick human triggered avalanches are likely and natural avalanches are possible on east through west aspects above 3500 feet on slopes 35° and steeper. Following the recent storm on 1/13-14, we received up to 10 inches of new snow with calm winds. Snow surfaces were soft and the riding was excellent. Now with all of that low density snow available for transport, combined with moderate to high winds on 1/17-18 from the east and northeast, wind slabs will continue to form on leeward aspects. During field observations yesterday, we noticed active snow transport with plumes of snow cascading off peaks and ridgelines which actively built wind slabs throughout the day on slopes that face east through west. Long propagating shooting cracks and audible whumphs from slabs collapsing underfoot were noticed on several occasions during our time in the field.
Conservative terrain selection is recommended. Expect slabs on east to west aspects, and cross-loaded gullies, to be variable in hardness with the potential to crack, collapse, and avalanche as you step on them. Slabs will be reactive to the additional weight of wind blown snow or a person, with soft or weak sugary snow beneath. Smooth or rounded snow features just below ridgelines, on convex roll-overs, and surrounding concave drainages are places you could find sensitive slabs. Although the winds may be stronger in the Matanuska Valley, slopes in the lower elevation have not seen much for snow transport or concerning wind slab formation. As the winds continue this morning there will be some uncertainty as to how thick and sensitive these slabs will be this afternoon. Utilize constant snowpack evaluation, traveling on more northern aspects, surfaces scoured by the wind, or on low elevation and low angle slopes can increase your safety margin.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Terrain steeper than 40° has been the canvas for numerous loose dry avalanches since we received up to 10 inches of new snow on 1/13-14. These avalanches have occurred both naturally and with humans as the trigger. You can find evidence of recent loose dry avalanches on all aspects of the mid and upper elevations. Most of them are not capable of burying a human, but they could step into wind slabs which could make for a larger D2 size avalanche problem. Weak sugary snow grains below the recent snow or surrounding previously firm surfaces has been the catalyst for some of these avalanches. Loose dry avalanches are somewhat slow to gain momentum and can be avoided by sticking to lower angled slopes.