Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Thu, January 18th, 2024 - 7:00AM
Expires
Fri, January 19th, 2024 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Ryan Lewthwaite
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger has increased to CONSIDERABLE for Wind Slabs up to 10 inches deep in specific locations above 3500 feet. 

A MODERATE danger for Loose Dry avalanches exists in terrain steeper than 40° on all aspects and elevations.

Strong winds are actively transporting the recent snow onto aspects which face east through west and cross-loaded terrain, where it will continue to form sensitive slabs capable of burying a person. 

Reevaluate the snowpack regularly and choose terrain with a conservative mindset.

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Thu, January 18th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
3 - Considerable
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
3 - Considerable
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Fri, January 19th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Fri, January 19th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

~On 1/17 while booting-up in the Independence Lot we witnessed a wind slab avalanche above Martin Mine which sympathetically released an adjacent slab avalanche.

~A small wind slab avalanche broke in our vicinity as we evaluated a previous avalanche near the lower flank of Eldorado Bowl.

~We intentionally triggered a wind slab avalanche on a small test slope in a steep drainage below Eldorado Bowl while skinning back to the parking lot.

~Numerous small to large loose dry sluffs have been observed in steep terrain since the new snow on 1/13-14.

Below Eldorado Bowl on SW aspect at 3200ft 1/17/24

Natural Wind Slab Avalanche Below Eldorado Bowl on SW aspect at 3200ft 1/17/24

Creek Drainage below Martin Mine West aspect 3200 ft 1/17/24

Human Triggered Wind Slab Avalanche in Creek Drainage below Martin Mine West aspect 3200 ft 1/17/24

Observed 2 Natural Wind Slab Avalanches Near Martin Mine South Aspect 4000 ft 1/17/24

Observed 2 Natural Wind Slab Avalanches Near Martin Mine South Aspect 4000 ft 1/17/24

Recent Conditions
Snow Flagging from Ridgelines off Eldorado Peak 1/17/24

Snow Flagging from Ridgelines off Eldorado Peak 1/17/24

Shooting Cracks in Wind Slab Underfoot 1/17/24

Shooting Cracks in Wind Slab Underfoot 1/17/24

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Wind Slabs
    Wind Slabs
  • Aspect/Elevation
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Aspect/Elevation of the Avalanche Problem
Specialists develop a graphic representation of the potential distribution of a particular avalanche problem across the topography. This aspect/elevation rose is used to indicate where the particular avalanche problem is thought to exist on all elevation aspects. Areas where the avalanche problem is thought to exist are colored grey, and it is less likely to be encountered in areas colored white.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

4 to 10 inch thick human triggered avalanches are likely and natural avalanches are possible on east through west aspects above 3500 feet on slopes 35° and steeper. Following the recent storm on 1/13-14, we received up to 10 inches of new snow with calm winds. Snow surfaces were soft and the riding was excellent. Now with all of that low density snow available for transport, combined with moderate to high winds on 1/17-18 from the east and northeast, wind slabs will continue to form on leeward aspects. During field observations yesterday, we noticed active snow transport with plumes of snow cascading off peaks and ridgelines which actively built wind slabs throughout the day on slopes that face east through west. Long propagating shooting cracks and audible whumphs from slabs collapsing underfoot were noticed on several occasions during our time in the field.

Conservative terrain selection is recommended. Expect slabs on east to west aspects, and cross-loaded gullies, to be variable in hardness with the potential to crack, collapse, and avalanche as you step on them. Slabs will be reactive to the additional weight of wind blown snow or a person, with soft or weak sugary snow beneath. Smooth or rounded snow features just below ridgelines, on convex roll-overs, and surrounding concave drainages are places you could find sensitive slabs. Although the winds may be stronger in the Matanuska Valley, slopes in the lower elevation have not seen much for snow transport or concerning wind slab formation. As the winds continue this morning there will be some uncertainty as to how thick and sensitive these slabs will be this afternoon. Utilize constant snowpack evaluation, traveling on more northern aspects, surfaces scoured by the wind, or on low elevation and low angle slopes can increase your safety margin. 

Below Eldorado Bowl on SW aspect at 3200ft 1/17/24

Below Eldorado Bowl on SW aspect at 3200 ft 1/17/24

 

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Dry Loose
    Dry Loose
  • Aspect/Elevation
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Dry Loose
Dry Loose avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Aspect/Elevation of the Avalanche Problem
Specialists develop a graphic representation of the potential distribution of a particular avalanche problem across the topography. This aspect/elevation rose is used to indicate where the particular avalanche problem is thought to exist on all elevation aspects. Areas where the avalanche problem is thought to exist are colored grey, and it is less likely to be encountered in areas colored white.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

Terrain steeper than 40° has been the canvas for numerous loose dry avalanches since we received up to 10 inches of new snow on 1/13-14. These avalanches have occurred both naturally and with humans as the trigger. You can find evidence of recent loose dry avalanches on all aspects of the mid and upper elevations. Most of them are not capable of burying a human, but they could step into wind slabs which could make for a larger D2 size avalanche problem. Weak sugary snow grains below the recent snow or surrounding previously firm surfaces has been the catalyst for some of these avalanches. Loose dry avalanches are somewhat slow to gain momentum and can be avoided by sticking to lower angled slopes.

Loose Dry Avalanches in Steep Terrain on Idaho Peak SW Aspect 4000 ft 1/17/24

Loose Dry Avalanches in Steep Terrain on Idaho Peak SW Aspect 4000 ft 1/17/24

Weather
Thu, January 18th, 2024
Projected winds at 9am around 5000 ft 1/18/24

Projected winds at 9am around 5000 ft 1/18/24

NWS AVG Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

Marmot Weather Station here.

Independence Mine Snotel here.

Frostbite Bottom Snotel here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

XC trail grooming report for Mat-Su, Anchorage, and Kenai here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass