Hatcher Pass
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The Bottom Line
The avalanche hazard for today is MODERATE for Dry Loose avalanches (sluffs) on steep slopes 40° and steeper, on all aspects, at all elevations.
New low density snow from last week and this week have improved conditions, in addition to increasing the potential to trigger sluffs.
Route choice and sluff management will be integral to not getting sluffed into a terrain trap or somewhere you don’t want to go. We recommend practicing safe travel protocol, skiing/riding one at a time, spacing out, and using appropriate safe zones.
An additional concern for human triggering small persistent soft slabs failing 0.5-2 feet deep exists in isolated, previously wind effected areas, on all aspects, at mid to upper elevations.
Ill bet you a HPAC Square Pow IPA that you hit a rock too, sorry.
Special AnnouncementsJoin us in celebrating the arrival of the HPAC Square Pow IPA from our local BearPaw Brewing. $1 from every 16oz 4 pack sold will be donated to the HPAC! Pick up yours today!!
Raffle tickets are no longer available at local stores. If you missed out, please get in touch with a board member this weekend.
$30 Cash or check only. Raffle will be held on February 15th.
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| Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
| Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
| Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Numerous small, natural and human triggered dry loose avalanches (sluffs) were observed this week in much of the terrain at hatcher pass.
2/12 – Microdot, S, 4250′. Unintentional human triggered loose dry avalanche. Rider escaped. Note that having been caught in this slide, the rider could have been swept into rocks and over a small cliff band.
2/11-12 – Gold Chord, SE, 4000′. Natural, small, dry loose avalanches.
Few, small, isolated natural and human triggered soft slabs and wind slabs were observed this week.
2/10 – Marmot, SW, 4000′. Intentionally triggered, small, fresh wind slab avalanches.
2/9-10? – Martin Mine, E, 4250′. Natural slab avalanche, D2
2/10-11? – Cable Valley, SW, 4900′. Small, Natural storm slab avalanche.
| Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
| Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
| Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
| Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
| Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Dry loose sluffs will be possible to human trigger today only on slopes 40° and steeper, on all aspects, at all elevations. HP received 4″ of new snow on 2/10-11, adding to last weeks 6-10″ of low density snow. This snow combined with old weak facets (Square Pow) will increase the size and consequence of any sluff. Terrain choice and sluff management will be integral to not getting caught or tweaking a knee today. Unfortunately, despite the increasing snow coverage, nearly everyone is still hitting rocks. We are continuing to dial it back a notch due to these hazards.
Some small natural loose dry avalanche activity is possible on south to west aspects at all elevations, on steep slopes with direct solar gain. These will be more likely near rock bands where dark rocks absorb heat from the sun and melt nearby snow, triggering loose dry avalanches.
Small, isolated persistent slabs 0.5-2 feet deep may be possible to human trigger in upper elevation terrain on aspects where wind effected, stiff snow at ridge tops and on cross loaded features exists. Anywhere you encounter stiff snow, you can be assured it is sitting on weak facets, a potential set up for slab release. Stiff, smooth, hollow snow over weaker snow, combined with cracking or collapsing is a red flag for this problem.
New snow totals Feb 7th -11th:
Independence Mine: 4″ of new snow
Temperatures at 4500′ since 2/11 have warmed from the teens into the lower 20º’sF. Its 19°F at Marmot, 18°F at Independence Mine, and 5°F with clear skies at the Palmer Airport this morning at 6am. For today the Rec Forecast is calling for inversion with warmer temps up high, possibly reaching 29°F at 3000′ this afternoon with a temp of 22°F at 1000′, however models seem to be indicating slightly cooler temperatures by a few degrees.
Calm winds have persisted along with clear skies since 2/11, and today is no different. However we are looking at a pattern change starting Monday as the Yukon high pressure migrates southward and allows for low pressure systems to enter southcentral from the Bering. We may see some clouds as early as tomorrow with the next chance for snow Monday night into Tuesday.
Marmot 4500′ Last 24 hours
NWS Rec Forecast here.
NWS point forecast here.
State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.
