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Small sensitive wind slabs up to 7″ thick will be possible to human trigger at upper elevation on W to N aspects today. Dry loose sluffs will be possible to human trigger in terrain steeper than 40º at all elevations and all aspects. Persistent slabs will be possible to trigger today at all elevations, in specific locations on E to W aspects. Last weekend’s “drizzle” crust aka the “rashizzle” has been the culprit of rashes caused from crashing this week, ouch! The crust varies in thickness with location but is reported to be widespread up to 5000′ at Hatcher Pass.
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
SE winds gusting 18-21 for 11 hours on 3/4-3/5 have formed shallow wind slabs on leeward aspects at upper elevation.
Small wind slabs up to 7″ thick will be possible to human trigger at upper elevation on West to North aspects today. Wind slabs may fail on top of the drizzle crust or beneath the crust depending on location. The crust is brittle and breakable to firm and stout depending on location. Wind slabs that fail on the firm crust will have a challenging bed surface to maneuver off.
Faceting is occurring under and above this drizzle crust and will continue to be a layer of concern during the next storm or loading event.
It is unlikely, but not impossible that the wind slab could step down to the persistent slab 1-3′ deep in isolated locations.
Human triggered Wind Slab , N aspect 4500ft. 3/5
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Small dry loose sluffs will be possible to human trigger today on steep slopes above 40º at all elevations. For the most part, sluffs are slow moving but they will require sluff management in steeper more committing terrain. The smooth crust is making a nice bed surface for dry loose sluffs. Managing the “rashizzle” crust takes skill and continues to make us feel humbled. Catching an edge in the crust and getting caught in your sluff will be possible today.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Persistent slabs 1-3 feet deep will be possible to human trigger or remotely trigger today on East to West aspects, at all elevations today. The snowpack has poor structure and flaws that will continue to be problematic throughout our season. The persistent slab problem has and is expected to continue to fluctuate between dormancy and activity. East and south aspects have a shallower and therefore weaker snowpack. West aspects have poor structure with the addition of a thick slab component from wind events throughout this season.
We have observed several small to large, 1-3 ft deep persistent slab avalanches both human and remotely triggered over the past week. On 3/2 we saw a remotely triggered snowmachine avalanche that was capable of burying, injuring, or killing a person.
Test slopes, snowpits, slope cuts, previous tracks, and cornice drops can be misleading or unreliable tools for assessing this inherently dangerous and unpredictable avalanche condition. This low probability but high consequence hazard reminds us to be disciplined in implementing proper travel protocol in avalanche terrain. Ride one at a time, use appropriate safe zones, use communication, choose skin tracks and routes appropriately according to the danger of the day.
Divide Ridge avalanche , W 2700′ 3/2
No new snow since 3/1
3/4-3/5 Marmot winds @4500′ gusted SE 18-21 for 11 hours.
Marmot 4500′ Last 24 hours:
NWS is calling for light westerly winds today with 50% chance of precipitation and 11-20ºF at 3000′.
NWS Rec Forecast here.
NWS point forecast here.
State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.