Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

Hatcher Pass RSS

Archives
ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Thu, March 24th, 2022 - 7:00AM
Expires
Fri, March 25th, 2022 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Jake Kayes
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Today’s avalanche problems are Persistent Slab and Wind Slab.

Human triggered Persistent Slab avalanches are possible in isolated areas at upper elevations on southwest, west, northwest and north aspects. These avalanches will be small to large in size.

Human-triggered Wind Slabs are possible at upper elevations on west, northwest and north aspects. These avalanches will be small to large in size.

Natural avalanches are unlikely.  

At mid and low elevations the avalanche danger will be low, where triggering an avalanche is unlikely.  

The winds have greatly affected riding quality. On north aspects in protected areas, low density snow can still be found.

Special Announcements

Come join HPAC tonight, for a screening of the movie, BURIED, at the Beartooth fundraiser Thur March 24th. All new HPAC swag will be available for purchase.

HPAC will continue providing avalanche information till the end of our season April 16.

Thu, March 24th, 2022
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

Two Human triggered slab avalanches were reported on March 22. Click here and here for more info. 

A wide propagating human triggered slab avalanche in Lone Tree Gulch. This was triggered on March 22nd.

Loose wet avalanches were also observed on solar aspects.

Small wet loose on Arkose Ridge. Monday 3/21

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Persistent Slabs
    Persistent Slabs
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

Moderate to strong winds earlier in the week built slabs 4-18” thick on southwest, west, northwest and north aspects that are sitting on weak sugary facets, and in some locations on a crust. Many backcountry travelers have noted significant wind affected conditions in many locations this week. 

In isolated areas at upper elevations on southwest, west, northwest and north aspects, human triggered avalanches are possible. These avalanches will be small to large in size. These avalanches will be found on slopes 30 degrees and steeper. Winds were more significant near  Arkose Ridge; we believe slabs will be thicker in areas closer to Arkose Ridge. One person triggered a wide propagating D1.5 avalanche earlier this week near Lone Tree Gulch.

Wind affected snow is abundant near the Arkose Ridge Line.

To identify this avalanche problem use pole/probes, hand pits and formal stability tests. Look for hard dense snow sitting on top of weak sugary snow.  Look for smooth wind drifted snow on or near ridge lines and cross-loaded gullies. Hollow sounding and drum like snow will be another sign that you’re like traveling over snow that has poor structure.

More wind affected snow above the Goldmint parking lot.

If you do head out into avalanche terrain use safe travel protocol. Spread out when ascending slopes, descend one at a time and regroup in areas out of harm’s way. Even a small avalanche can have severe consequences if you’re traveling above a terrain trap. Be mindful of what is below you.

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Wind Slabs
    Wind Slabs
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

Strong winds on 3/23 from the east and southeast transported snow for 5 hours, with gusts up to 38mph. These winds were able to create Wind Slabs 3-6” thick on west, northwest and north aspects at upper elevations. Human triggered avalanches are possible and natural avalanches are unlikely. These avalanches will be found on slopes 35 degrees and steeper, at and near ridge lines, and cross loaded gullies. There is some uncertainty in terms of slab thickness with minimal snow available to transport. After more sustained winds today it will be possible for wind slabs, to step down into the persistent slab in isolated locations.

To identify this avalanche problem use pole/probes and stability tests. Look for smooth, wind drifted snow. Strong winds are forecasted to continue in Hatcher Pass today. Look for signs of active wind loading, if you decided to head out into the mountains.

Flagging is a sign that wind is transporting snow. Monday 3/21

Some impressive anti tracks near Two Lake Valley.

 

Weather
Thu, March 24th, 2022

There’s been minimal precipitation in Hatcher Pass over the last week. However there has been several wind events that have greatly affected riding quality.

Here’s a quick view of what’s been going on at Marmot weather station in terms of wind.

Wind speeds at Marmot Station 4500′ Mar 17-24


NWS AVG Forecast here.

NWS Rec Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass