Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Sat, March 30th, 2024 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, March 31st, 2024 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Allie Barker
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE for WIND SLABS above 3500′. The danger is LOW below 3500′.

The Easter Bunny is coming early and bringing a surprise!

Expect our stable snowpack paradigm to rapidly shift this weekend.

Strong winds combined with 4-6″ of new snow Saturday followed by 12-16″ of new snow Sunday/Monday will increase avalanche danger by Sunday morning. 

 

Special Announcements

Tomorrow is the final day to apply for your 2024 Permanent Fund Dividend! Please consider supporting HPAC through Pick.Click.Give.

Join us for our final event of the season at Bearpaw River Brewing Company on Monday! This “Meet the Forecasters” chat will also feature the 2024 release of Bearpaw’s Square Pow IPA! Details on the Events page.

Sat, March 30th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Sun, March 31st, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
3 - Considerable
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
3 - Considerable
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Sun, March 31st, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
3 - Considerable
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
3 - Considerable
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

No recent avalanches have been reported or observed since the wet avalanche cycle March 20-21.

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Wind Slabs
    Wind Slabs
  • Aspect/Elevation
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Aspect/Elevation of the Avalanche Problem
Specialists develop a graphic representation of the potential distribution of a particular avalanche problem across the topography. This aspect/elevation rose is used to indicate where the particular avalanche problem is thought to exist on all elevation aspects. Areas where the avalanche problem is thought to exist are colored grey, and it is less likely to be encountered in areas colored white.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

It will be possible to human trigger wind slabs 2-6″ thick on west to north (clockwise) aspects at upper elevation on slopes steeper than 30°. Natural avalanches are unlikely. A short duration yet intense wind event on Friday gusted SE 31-46mph for 7 hrs @ 4500′ on Marmot and 36-55mph for 10 hrs @ 4561′ on Hatch.  The good news is wind slabs will be small in size due to the little amount of low density snow available to transport. Wind slabs are unlikely at low and mid elevation. See recent observations from Friday here.

Use hand pits and pole probes to identify wind slabs. Look for hard snow sitting over weaker snow, smooth and rounded or lens shaped features.  Shooting cracks or whumping are signs of instability and indicators of this avalanche problem.

As always we recommend carrying the appropriate rescue gear and knowing how to use it. Safe travel techniques are important every time we travel in avalanche terrain. This means spreading out when ascending slopes, descending one at a time, and regrouping well outside of the runout zone.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON

The Easter Bunny is bringing winter back to us!  This is no April Fool’s joke!

Expect strong winds to accompany 4-6″” of new snow by end of the day Saturday. Strong winds gusting 30-40 mph combined with an additional 12-16″ of new snow are forecasted Sunday into Monday. Snowfall will be intense at times and combined with strong winds will increase the avalanche hazard.  Stay tuned for a Sunday morning forecast with updated information.

 

Weather
Sat, March 30th, 2024

 

NWS AVG Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

Marmot Weather Station here.

Independence Mine Snotel here.

Frostbite Bottom Snotel here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

XC trail grooming report for Mat-Su, Anchorage, and Kenai here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass