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Today’s Avalanche Problems will be Persistent Slab and Dry Loose. Large human triggered Persistent Slabs will be likely on East thru West aspects at all elevations. Small to Large Dry Loose avalanches will be possible on all aspects and all elevations on slopes 40° and steeper.
Remote triggering avalanches will be possible today.
Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding, and conservative decision making will be essential if you chose to venture up to Hatcher Pass today.
On 3/31 there was a remote triggered avalanche on Lower Eldorado. There were several natural avalanches observed this week.
3/31: Lower Eldorado: ESE 3500’:
Marmot Lodge Run 4200’ W:
3/29: Marmot 4000′ S natural persistent slab:
3/29 Idaho Peak S natural storm slab
3/29 Government Peak Seldom Seen 4200′ E: no photo
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Persistent weak layers have continued to be reactive during and after the 3/29 storm that brought 6-10” of new snow with moderate winds. Large human triggered avalanches will be likely today on East thru West aspects, at all elevations on slopes 35° or steeper. REMOTE TRIGGERING from a distance will be possible today.
Many red flags were observed on Wednesday including significant cracking, collapsing, and remote triggering avalanches.
The snowpack has extremely poor structure with multiple weak sugary layers and lots of crusts. The layer that is most concerning is a crust facet sandwich that is approximately 1.5 – 2 feet from the surface. This layer was responsible for two large natural avalanches during the last storm. If you do trigger an avalanche on this crust facet sandwich there is the possibility of it stepping down into weak sugary snow near the ground, increasing the size and consequence of any avalanche.
This avalanche problem can be difficult to predict. Previous tracks on the slope will NOT be an indicator of stability with this avalanche problem. Recent avalanches, whumping, and shooting cracks will be red flags for this avalanche problem. Use ski pole probes to look for stiff snow sitting over weak sugary facets. Use snowpits and hand hardness tests to better identify areas with poor structure.
We recommend using low risk travel techniques, this includes spreading out when traveling uphill or near avalanche terrain. Riding slopes one at a time and stopping and regrouping out of harm’s way. Avoid riding slopes that have terrain traps below. Terrain traps can increase your burial depth.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
6-10” of new snow fell during the last storm. This new snow will be capable of producing small to large Dry Loose avalanches at all elevations, and on all aspects, on slopes 40° or steeper. Human triggered avalanches are possible, natural avalanches are unlikely.
We recommend using good sluff management if you decide to step out into steeper terrain. These avalanches will be capable of catching, carrying and sweeping you through hazards, if not managed properly. Terrain traps can increase the consequences of any avalanche. Know what’s below you and avoid riding above any cliffs or gullies.
3/28-4/1 new snow totals:
Independence Mine: 10″
Frostbite bottom: 6″
Hatcher started out the week with cold temps in the single digits at both ridge tops and valleys. On the evening of 3/28 a large storm system moved into Hatcher Pass. As this storm progressed temperatures increased, along with speeds. On the evening of 3/29 wind were strong from the S with peak gust upto 36mphs. One the storm left temps began to drop again before spiking on 3/31 with a high of 28°F at Marmot Station.
NWS Rec Forecast here.
NWS point forecast here.
State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.
Independence Mine 3/28-4/1:
|
Temp
|
RH
|
Spd
|
Gust
|
Dir
|
|
|
|
SWE
|
SnoHt
|
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Min | 7 | 43 | 0.4 | 2 | N | 13.4 | 54 | ||||
Max | 23 | 95 | 11.2 | 36.9 | N | 15.8 | 63 | ||||
Average | 17.4 | 79.7 | 3.8 | 8.6 | – | 14.6 | 58 |
Marmot 3/28-4/1: Marmot station did not report wind speeds for 14 hours on 3/31
|
Temp
|
RH
|
Spd
|
Gust
|
Dir
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Min | 4.8 | 44 | 0 | 0 | N |
Max | 27.6 | 100 | 18 | 35 | N |
Average | 14.4 | 88.7 | 3.9 | 8.9 | S |