Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

Hatcher Pass RSS

Archives
ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Thu, April 13th, 2023 - 7:00AM
Expires
Fri, April 14th, 2023 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Allie Barker
High Avalanche Danger
Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. Avoid being on or beneath all steep slopes.
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Apparently April is the new January.  A dynamic and fast moving storm has deposited 30″+ of new snow with 2.5″ of water (SWE) in the last 48 hrs combined with wind and intense warming during the day on Wednesday.

The avalanche danger is HIGH for STORM SLAB at mid and upper elevation and CONSIDERABLE at low elevation on all aspects, on slopes 30º and steeper.  The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE  for WIND SLAB at mid and upper elevation on west to northeast aspects on slopes steeper than 35º. The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE for LOOSE DRY at all elevations in steep terrain greater than 40º.

Large and very large avalanches will be likely today. Travel up Archangel and Goldmint trails is not recommended today. 

Red flags for avalanche danger include recent avalanches, shooting cracks, and whumphing.

The bulk of the storm should taper today.

Thu, April 13th, 2023
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
4 - High
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
4 - High
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
3 - Considerable
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

Recent Avalanches (apologies for grainy low light photos)

Update 12pm 4/13

Several large D2-2.5 avalanches have been confirmed today at Hatcher Pass including Marmot, Divide Ridge off of Idaho Peak, and the Punk Spines. We expect that numerous other avalanches have occurred but visibility has made observing them challenging. One avalanche on Vice Presidents of Marmot and a second avalanche in Marmot gully 2 have hit or crossed the road recently.

Occurred late Wednesday night, Vice Presidents of Marmot. Partially crossed the road with approximately 15 ft of debris. Photo: K. McGrath

 

4/13 Divide Ridge on Idaho Peak, Natural storm slab. Photo: K. McGrath

 

4/13 Punk Spines on Arkose Ridge. Looks like natural wind slabs mid storm but hard to tell with low light. Photo: K. McGrath

Numerous dry and wet sluffs were reported or observed on all aspects this week.

A few small slab avalanches were reported this week. See obs from Goldmint here. 

4/7 4900′ WNW 2 mile creek up Goldmint. Human triggered slab avalanche

4/7 Sluff debris from peak 5100

Due to a lack of visibility on Wednesday we could not see any recent avalanches that we expected to occur during and after the 4/11-12 storm.

 

Recent Conditions

New low density snow turned “Hot Pow” by the afternoon from significant cloud cover and green-housing

 

16″ of new snow in the road mid day on Wednesday near Archangel trailhead

 

Plows Wednesday afternoon were struggling with new snow that turned moist very quickly.

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Storm Slabs
    Storm Slabs
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

Hatcher Pass has received 30″ of new snow with 2.5″ SWE at 3550′ over the last 48 hours. During most of this storm HP received 1 inch per hour which is significant and will easily overload the existing snow structure.

Large to very large STORM SLABS will be very likely to human trigger today on all aspects, at all elevations, on slopes steeper than 30º.  Expect avalanches to be larger on southerly aspects, southeast to southwest, where numerous buried firm crusts will act as a smooth bed surface. Natural avalanches are likely today.

The structure of the snowpack is poor on southerly aspects. Until now, frozen crusts have been holding it together. However, we expect this storm to overload weak layers, resulting in numerous avalanches. It will be possible for storm slabs to hit or cross the upper road off of Marmot between mile 16 and Archangel.

Travel in avalanche terrain is NOT recommended today. 

Limited visibility inhibited our ability to see any terrain on Wednesday, however, we did observe shooting cracks and new storm slabs that gained density throughout the day due to the greenhouse effect from the clouds. Low density snow in the morning quickly moistened by the afternoon and glopped to your skis and boots below 3200′.

Mile 15 webcam snowing steadily at 2am and contributing to the avalanche problem.

 

Shooting cracks and cohesive slabs observed at 3000′ on Wednesday.

To identify storm slabs use hand pits, small test slopes, and stability tests.  Recent avalanches, cracking and collapsing will be red flags for this avalanche problem.

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Wind Slabs
    Wind Slabs
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

Wind slabs 6-12″ thick will be likely to tigger on leeward aspects, W to NE, at mid and upper elevation, on slopes steeper than 35º. Wind slabs will be unlikely to trigger at low elevation where winds have been relatively calm.

At 4500′, winds have been gusting SE>S>SW 17-26 mph intermittently over the past 48 hours with consistent gusts in the teens.  Additional new snow accumulation combined with lack of visibility throughout the day will disguise wind slabs that have formed and make identifying them challenging to impossible today.

To identify wind slabs look for hard snow sitting over weaker snow, smooth and rounded or lens shaped features.  They may sound hollow or crack out from your ski tip or snowmachine as you travel across them.  Shooting cracks and whumping are signs of instability and indicators of this avalanche problem.

Expect wind slabs to become less reactive within 24-48 hours after the storm ends.

Avalanche Problem 3
  • Dry Loose
    Dry Loose
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Dry Loose
Dry Loose avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

Loose dry avalanches (sluffs) will be likely to trigger at all elevations, on all aspects, on slopes steeper than 40º. Expect the volume of sluff to be considerably larger at upper elevation and smaller at low elevation.

Expect sluffs to gain more momentum and run further above 4000′ where cooler temps during the storm combined with lower density snow has accumulated.  Any buried crust or smooth bed surface will contribute to the size and speed of this problem.

Avoid steep slopes above terrain traps. These avalanches will be capable of sweeping you off your feet and carrying you into terrain traps, compounding the hazard.

Lastly, pay attention to aspects with significant warming throughout the day from extensive cloud cover and greenhousing. As snow surfaces become more gloppy and stick to your skis and machine this is an indicator that the snow is losing strength and wet loose will be possible in steep terrain.

Weather
Thu, April 13th, 2023

4/11-13: 30″ new snow with 2.5″ SWE at 3550′. 17″ new snow with 1.6″ SWE at 2700′.

Over the past 24 hours winds have been gusting S/SSW 18-26 mph at 4500′.

Before the storm 4/10

 

5am this morning topping off the 6ft mark and entering into the 7th!

 


NWS AVG Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

Marmot Weather Station here.

Independence Mine Snotel here.

Frostbite Bottom Snotel here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

XC trail grooming report for Mat-Su, Anchorage, and Kenai here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass