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This weeks large avalanche cycle deposited a significant amount of snow and water in Hatcher Pass, scaring the landscape with numerous large slab avalanches. The storm and wind slab problems from earlier in the week have healed, leaving our foe and friend the persistent slab as the sole problem.
The avalanche danger is MODERATE for PERSISTENT SLABS on all aspects, on all elevations, on slopes 35º and steeper. Isolated locations with a shallower snowpack combined with buried facets sitting on firm bed surfaces will be the most likely location to trigger an avalanche this weekend. Remotely triggering an avalanche is possible today.
Rising temperatures throughout the day will have the biggest impact your fun factor making slabs more cohesive, turning lower density snow into hot pow, and increasing the likelihood of wet avalanches on steep southerly aspects.
Today is the last forecast for HPAC. However, if pertinent weather contributes to another avalanche cycle we will provide additional forecasts thru April 22. Please continue to check the observation platform for avalanche information throughout the spring. We will continue to monitor and publish your obs. Thank you for your support this season. Stay safe out there!
*The Hatcher Pass road that was covered by avalanche debris has been cleared by DOT and is open as of 5pm Friday.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Numerous large D2-2.5 avalanches occurred as a result of the 4/11-13 Passover Miracle Avalanche Cycle that dumped 30″+ of new snow with approximately 2.8″ SWE at 3550′ and likely more snow above 3500′. Most of the avalanches were storm slabs with a few wind slabs and failed in the new snow/old snow interface. However, some avalanches failed deeper within persistent weak layers. See more under persistent slab problem in the forecast.
Avalanches were observed in the following locations (have not observed IM bowl yet): Marmot 1/Vice Presidents, Marmot 2, Marmot 3, Seldom scene, Frostbite, Knob point above Goldmint, Idaho Peak, Archangel 1/Firn, Archangel 2, Punk Spines, to name a few.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Persistent slabs 1 to 3 feet thick will be possible to human trigger on all aspects, at all elevations, on slopes steeper than 35º. Remotely triggering an avalanche will be possible today. Natural avalanches are unlikely.
There are specific and isolated locations where triggering a small to large avalanche is still possible. Picking out exact problem locations will be difficult. The most likely location will be where weak sugary snow/facets are buried and sitting on top a firm bed surface, either an old wind slab on leeward aspects or a sun crust on southerly aspects in a shallow location.
On Thursday, a skier remotely triggered a persistent slab from several hundred yards away which ran 800 ft.
Most of the recent avalanches that occurred as a result of the 4/11-13 storm were storm slabs with a few wind slabs and failed in the new/old snow interface approximately 12″ to 24″ deep. Most of these avalanches went mid-storm or towards the end on 4/12 and the crowns can be hard to pick out several days later. On Friday, we observed numerous large slabs on all aspects, at all elevations. More info is in the avalanche section. We did not have propagation in our pits on east and north aspects Friday but did find buried facets sitting on old firm wind slabs.
Expect the persistent slab problem to continue to heal slowly throughout the spring before it transitions into a wet slab problem as temperatures increase and cease to freeze overnight.
Pole/probe tests and formal stability tests will help you identify this problem. Whumping and shooting cracks will be red flags for this avalanche problem.
If you head into avalanche terrain today, utilize strict safety travel protocols, travel one at a time from safe zone to safe zone, only have one person on slope at a time, ensure all members of your party are carrying and know how to use beacons, shovels and probes, and avoid slopes with terrain traps.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Temperatures are starting out significantly warmer this morning with only a slight freeze at low elevation. At 5am this morning temperatures are 31º at 2700, 27º at 3550′ and 22º at 4500′. Expect moist snow surfaces to cling to your boots and skins making uphill or downhill travel challenging and catchy in the afternoon. Sunshine is in the forecast for today with temps expected to reach 42ºF below 2500′ and in the middle 30’s which will feel quite a bit warmer above 4000′. Despite the lack of sunshine this week (month, season…put in your own noun here ) intense radiation ie. greenhousing from the clouds has transformed snow surfaces this week, surprising even the most seasoned locals. Finding low density powder will be a challenging scavenger hunt with little to no reward unless you are very motivated.
Looking forward: Pay attention to rapidly changing springtime conditions.
As spring progresses and the temperature warms up, expect avalanche danger to change. Once it ceases to freeze at night for approximately 3 nights in a row, pay attention to and keep a lookout for wet avalanche problems. This might not happen until May, but it is on our radar.
Avalanche concerns in the spring can become complicated. Four concerns to be aware of include:
1.Loose Wet Avalanches- Loose wet avalanches are typically the first avalanches we see as the snowpack warms up. They can be triggered by snow heating up especially near rocks and cliffs on steep slopes. While they are relatively small and manageable on their own, they can be dangerous if they pick up enough volume, or if they push you into terrain traps. They can also trigger larger slab avalanches as they travel downhill. They are typically preceded by rollerballs or pinwheels rolling down slopes as they heat up. This in an easily avoidable avalanche problem.
2. Wet Slabs – Wet slab avalanches occur when meltwater from rain or warm temperatures percolate down through the snowpack and weaken the bonds (strength) of a buried weak layer. These avalanches can be human-triggered, but also occur naturally, including triggering from a small, wet-loose avalanche or cornice fall. Colder temperatures should lock up the snowpack this morning, but strong sunshine today could provide enough warming to trigger isolated wet slabs. These slabs will be the largest on southerly aspects where firm crust bed surfaces exist.
4/11-13 30″+ new snow with 2.8″ SWE @ 3550′, 17″ new snow with 1.6″ SWE at 2700′.
4/11-13 Winds gusted SSE 20-27 mph at 4500′. Winds gusted SE 21-26 mph on 4/12 at 3550′.
NWS AVG Forecast here.
NWS point forecast here.
Marmot Weather Station here.
Independence Mine Snotel here.
Frostbite Bottom Snotel here.
State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.
XC trail grooming report for Mat-Su, Anchorage, and Kenai here.