Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Sat, April 15th, 2023 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, April 16th, 2023 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Allie Barker
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

This weeks large avalanche cycle deposited a significant amount of snow and water in Hatcher Pass, scaring the landscape with numerous large slab avalanches. The storm and wind slab problems from earlier in the week have healed, leaving our foe and friend the persistent slab as the sole problem.

The avalanche danger is MODERATE for PERSISTENT SLABS on all aspects, on all elevations, on slopes 35º and steeper.  Isolated locations with a shallower snowpack combined with buried facets sitting on firm bed surfaces will be the most likely location to trigger an avalanche this weekend. Remotely triggering an avalanche is possible today.

Rising temperatures throughout the day will have the biggest impact your fun factor making slabs more cohesive, turning lower density snow into hot pow, and increasing the likelihood of wet avalanches on steep southerly aspects.

Special Announcements

Today is the last forecast for HPAC. However, if pertinent weather contributes to another avalanche cycle we will provide additional forecasts thru April 22. Please continue to check the observation platform for avalanche information throughout the spring. We will continue to monitor and publish your obs. Thank you for your support this season. Stay safe out there!

*The Hatcher Pass road that was covered by avalanche debris has been cleared by DOT and is open as of 5pm Friday.

Sat, April 15th, 2023
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

Numerous large D2-2.5 avalanches occurred as a result of the 4/11-13 Passover Miracle Avalanche Cycle that dumped 30″+ of new snow with approximately 2.8″ SWE at 3550′ and likely more snow above 3500′. Most of the avalanches were storm slabs with a few wind slabs and failed in the new snow/old snow interface. However, some avalanches failed deeper within persistent weak layers. See more under persistent slab problem in the forecast.

Avalanches were observed in the following locations (have not observed IM bowl yet): Marmot 1/Vice Presidents, Marmot 2, Marmot 3, Seldom scene, Frostbite, Knob point above Goldmint, Idaho Peak, Archangel 1/Firn, Archangel 2, Punk Spines, to name a few.

Idaho Peak and Divide Ridge sluffs and recent slab avalanches. Look closely at the gullys that are all filled with debris from the 4/11-13 avalanche cycle. Photo: Jed Workman

 

4.12 Naturals from 4/11-13 avalanche cycle, Vice Presidents, Marmot 1,2. Debris can be seen crossing the road in the lower right from Marmot 1 gully. Photo: Jed Workman

 

Marmot 3 gully with avalanche debris from two paths crossing the road. The was one of two paths that closed the road on Friday as a result of the 4/11-13 avalanche cycle. Photo: Jed Workman

 

Close up of the large avalanches on Vice Presidents ridge in Marmot gully 1. These avalanches filled the gully with debris and covered half the road. Photo: Allie Barker

 

Recent slabs on 4068′ and a large slab in the back of Valley of Sin, scroll in! This crown encompasses nearly the entire face of peak 4500′ N thru SE aspects.

 

Recent avalanches with visible slab avalanches and crowns on lower 4600′ and Government Peak. NE 4400′ NE 4000′

 

4/12 Debris can be seen filling the gully from Frostbite ridge. Look closely middle left of the photo to see the debris.

 

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Persistent Slabs
    Persistent Slabs
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

Persistent slabs 1 to 3 feet thick will be possible to human trigger on all aspects, at all elevations, on slopes steeper than 35º. Remotely triggering an avalanche will be possible today. Natural avalanches are unlikely.

There are specific and isolated locations where triggering a small to large avalanche is still possible. Picking out exact problem locations will be difficult. The most likely location will be where weak sugary snow/facets are buried and sitting on top a firm bed surface, either an old wind slab on leeward aspects or a sun crust on southerly aspects in a shallow location.

On Thursday, a skier remotely triggered a persistent slab from several hundred yards away which ran 800 ft.

4/13 The Knob above Goldmint. 2800′ WNW, remotely triggered slab avalanche. See slab in middle lower left of the photo with debris running approx 800ft.

Most of the recent avalanches that occurred as a result of the 4/11-13 storm were storm slabs with a few wind slabs and failed in the new/old snow interface approximately 12″ to 24″ deep. Most of these avalanches went mid-storm or towards the end on 4/12 and the crowns can be hard to pick out several days later. On Friday, we observed numerous large slabs on all aspects, at all elevations. More info is in the avalanche section. We did not have propagation in our pits on east and north aspects Friday but did find buried facets sitting on old firm wind slabs.

4/12 Divide ridge and Idaho Peak , old wet loose and recent slab avalanches failing on firm faceted crusts SSE 3200′

Expect the persistent slab problem to continue to heal slowly throughout the spring before it transitions into a wet slab problem as temperatures increase and cease to freeze overnight.

Pole/probe tests and formal stability tests will help you identify this problem. Whumping and shooting cracks will be red flags for this avalanche problem.

If you head into avalanche terrain today, utilize strict safety travel protocols, travel one at a time from safe zone to safe zone, only have one person on slope at a time, ensure all members of your party are carrying and know how to use beacons, shovels and probes, and avoid slopes with terrain traps.

 

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Wet Loose
    Wet Loose
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Wet Loose
Wet Loose avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

Temperatures are starting out significantly warmer this morning with only a slight freeze at low elevation. At 5am this morning temperatures are 31º at 2700, 27º at 3550′ and 22º at 4500′. Expect moist snow surfaces to cling to your boots and skins making uphill or downhill travel challenging and catchy in the afternoon. Sunshine is in the forecast for today with temps expected to reach 42ºF below 2500′ and in the middle 30’s which will feel quite a bit warmer above 4000′. Despite the lack of sunshine this week (month, season…put in your own noun here ) intense radiation ie. greenhousing from the clouds has transformed snow surfaces this week, surprising even the most seasoned locals. Finding low density powder will be a challenging scavenger hunt with little to no reward unless you are very motivated.

Looking forward: Pay attention to rapidly changing springtime conditions.

As spring progresses and the temperature warms up, expect avalanche danger to change. Once it ceases to freeze at night for approximately 3 nights in a row, pay attention to and keep a lookout for wet avalanche problems. This might not happen until May, but it is on our radar.

Avalanche concerns in the spring can become complicated.  Four concerns to be aware of include:

1.Loose Wet Avalanches- Loose wet avalanches are typically the first avalanches we see as the snowpack warms up. They can be triggered by snow heating up especially near rocks and cliffs on steep slopes.  While they are relatively small and manageable on their own, they can be dangerous if they pick up enough volume, or if they push you into terrain traps. They can also trigger larger slab avalanches as they travel downhill. They are typically preceded by rollerballs or pinwheels rolling down slopes as they heat up. This in an easily avoidable avalanche problem.

2. Wet Slabs – Wet slab avalanches occur when meltwater from rain or warm temperatures percolate down through the snowpack and weaken the bonds (strength) of a buried weak layer. These avalanches can be human-triggered, but also occur naturally, including triggering from a small, wet-loose avalanche or cornice fall.  Colder temperatures should lock up the snowpack this morning, but strong sunshine today could provide enough warming to trigger isolated wet slabs. These slabs will be the largest on southerly aspects where firm crust bed surfaces exist.

3. Glide Avalanches – A separate but related avalanche problem is glide avalanchesWhen they happen is mostly unpredictable, however, where they happen is generally predictable because there is often a huge crack in the snowpack. Common places to find glide avalanches are places with rock slabs or a smooth ground surface which are common in much of the terrain at Hatcher Pass. Simply avoid being under these places or any slope with a visible glide crack.
4. Cornices – Cornices in some places are massive, and they can break off naturally, especially during warm weather when they start bending downhill. Simply avoid being underneath or near the tops of large cornices as they break farther back than expected.

 

 

Weather
Sat, April 15th, 2023

4/11-13 30″+ new snow with 2.8″ SWE @ 3550′, 17″ new snow with 1.6″ SWE at 2700′.

4/11-13 Winds gusted SSE 20-27 mph at 4500′. Winds gusted SE 21-26 mph on 4/12 at 3550′.


NWS AVG Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

Marmot Weather Station here.

Independence Mine Snotel here.

Frostbite Bottom Snotel here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

XC trail grooming report for Mat-Su, Anchorage, and Kenai here.

Observations
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