Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Mon, November 4th, 2019 - 7:00AM
Expires
Tue, November 5th, 2019 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
HPAC Staff
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Large Glide avalanches have been naturally releasing. Many areas of Hatcher Pass resemble a war zone. Check out the observation page and social media for numerous posts including pictures.

Large, natural Glide avalanches will continue to be possible in specific areas. These avalanches may release now, or in a month, no one can accurately predict the timing of release.

What you can do to increase your safety margin: Avoid being under or on any location with an existing glide crack in the snowpack. Glide avalanches may run farther than you think, and may run down a slope and overrun flat terrain. Ensure you are not in the runnout of a possible glide avalanche. These cracks are fairly easy to identify, with a large upside down frown of a crack, resembling a crevasse, sometimes showing the dark ground surface. Review the pictures on the observation page for great examples of what to look for.

Special Announcements

Welcome to the new HPAC website! This site is made possible with a donation from the Friends of the Chugach Avalanche Center through a grant from the Mat-Su Trails and Park Foundation.

NEWS! HPAC is now it’s own non-profit 501(c)3 organization* and we need your support now more than ever. Our goal this season is to continue our usual weekend forecasts, and we need your help to make that happen. Please consider donating or contact us at info@hpavalanche.org if your business is interested in sponsoring a weekend forecast.

HPAC’s regular weekend forecasts will begin Saturday, November 16. Until then, we will have intermittent updates, so bookmark the page, subscribe at the bottom of the page, and check back here regularly.

The Southcentral Alaska Avalanche Workshop is coming this Friday, November 8th from 9am-4:30pm at the University of Alaska Anchorage Lucy Cuddy Hall (3400 Seawolf Dr., Anchorage). The afternoon session (1-4:30pm) is FREE and geared to backcountry users as well as professionals.

*HPAC used to operate under the non-profit, Alaska Avalanche Information Center. 

Mon, November 4th, 2019
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

Numerous Glide Avalanches have been releasing, with the most recent report from November 2. See video below.

Check out the numerous observations on the Observations page for more information and pictures of various, recent Glide Avalanches. If you are out and about Hatcher Pass, please submit your observations with the community and the avalanche center. If posting to social media, add the #hpavy to make it easy to find Hatcher Pass snow related information.

Multiple, old Glide Avalanches on the lower roll of Eldorado, E, 3600′

Glide avalanche on Willow side of Hatcher Pass proper.

Rain/drizzle crust with stress cracks. We have encountered this crust up to 5000′. The crust is 0.5-3cm depending on the area and elevation, is fairly easy to ski through, with a lot of powder locked under the vault of the crust.

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Glide Avalanches
    Glide Avalanches
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Glide Avalanches
Glide Avalanches are the release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. They are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

Glide avalanches occur when the entire snowpack slowly slides as a unit on the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist or almost entirely dry snow and pose a hazard that is very difficult to forecast and predict. They are often preceded by glide cracks (full depth cracks in the snowpack), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can very between second and months.

As a general rule, avoid being under or on any location where glide cracks are present, and glide avalanches are present. Some portions of glide avalanches that have already occurred, actually still have portions that have not yet released and therefore still pose a threat. Glide avalanches may run farther than you think, and may run down a slope and overrun flat terrain. Ensure you are not in the runnout of a possible glide avalanche. These cracks are fairly easy to identify, with a large upside down frown of a crack, resembling a crevasse, sometimes showing the dark ground surface. Review the pictures on the observation page for great examples of what to look for.

You will notice a pattern to the location of Glide Avalanches. They tend to be occurring on steep slopes, 35º and steeper, on slopes with smooth ground surfaces, such as grass or rock slabs, and the majority reside near an old rain line of approximately 4000´, with some as high as 4500′.

The current snowpack structure is entirely composed of rounded grains, melt freeze crusts, and ice lenses. Basically, there’s not a single facet in there, which is extremely rare! We currently have 2-3+ feet of snow as a base. Most of this seasons precipitation has fallen during periods of warm temperatures, sometimes as rain. A wet to moist snowpack, warm temps, and early (and now deep) snow insulating a warm ground surface are all contributing to the Glide Avalanche problem. This problem is not likely to go away soon.

The good news is, that where Glide Avalanches are not occurring or forming, the stability is quite good. We are still in the ealry stages of developing a thorough understanding of the snowpack, but testing has been fairly consistent, and each snowstorm has bonded well to older snow surfaces.

There is a structural flaw at the base of the snowpack, where weaker snow is sitting under stronger snow, and this is the layer that is creeping and failing in the Glide Avalanches. Its important to recognize that Hatcher Pass has seen a lot of backcountry traveler activity without human triggered avalanche results. Add that to good overall structure in the snowpack, a lack of typical weak layers, and a lack of propagation results and we are trending towards forecasting good stability in areas that lack glide cracks and glide avalanches.

Weather
Mon, November 4th, 2019

NWS Rec Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass