Hatcher Pass Avalanche Forecast
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3” of new snow along with strong winds overnight created dense wind-hardened snow capable of producing small avalanches.
Winds are forecasted to continue throughout the day. Expect the avalanche danger to increase throughout the day. The snowpack is already very weak and will not adjust to an even bigger load.
Small human-triggered wind slabs are possible at mid and upper elevations on W thru NE aspects. Natural avalanches are unlikely.
Small to large human-triggered persistent avalanches will be likely by the end of the day.
Coverage is still thin and getting caught in any size avalanche could have severe consequences.
No Recent Avalanches have been observed or reported since 11/16.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Winds from the SSE-SSW lasted for 7 hours with gusts up to 24mph. These winds transported 3” of new snow that fell last night in addition to low-density faceted snow that formed during last week’s cold spell and has created slabs 2-4” thick. These wind slabs will be found at mid and upper elevations on West thru Northeast aspects near ridgeline and leeward features on slopes 35º or steeper.
These wind slabs formed on weak faceted snow. Because the wind slabs have formed on weak snow we anticipate this avalanche problem to gain stability very slowly.
North- Northeast winds are forecasted throughout the day with sustained wind of 20mph and gusts up to 33mph. If this weather forecast verifies you can anticipate wind slabs at upper elevations on southerly aspects and leeward features.
After a week of stable conditions with lots of users traveling in avalanche terrain, stability has changed.
If you decide to head out in the mountains today be on the lookout for flagging or plumes of snow near ridge tops.
Wind slabs often have smooth, pillowed, or rounded features. They often sound hollow or drum-like. To identify this avalanche use pole probes, hand pits, and formal stability tests.
Shooting cracks and collapsing are red flags for this avalanche problem.
Continue to use safe travel protocol in avalanche terrain:
Coverage is still thin in many parts of the forecast zone.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The poor structure that has been discussed for the last few weeks should be back on your radar.
Strong winds from the N-NE are forecasted for today with sustained winds up to 20mph and gusts up to 30 mph. If this forecast verifies, snow transported by wind will create additional stress on the weak faceted snow at the ground. Small to large human-triggered persistent slab avalanches 1-3’ thick will be likely at upper elevations near ridge tops and leeward features on slopes 30º or steeper.
Over the last week, we have observed a thinner, shallower, and weaker snowpack on southerly aspects. Southerly aspects are where today’s wind will be transporting snow. Be on guard if traveling on south-facing slopes.
Shooting cracks and collapsing will be red flags for this problem. Use pole probes, hand pits, and other formal stability tests to identify this avalanche problem.
This persistent slab problem will be slow to heal, expect this avalanche problem to gain strength very slowly.
Weak sugary faceted snow can be observed near the ground. This structure will need time to adjust to any additional load.