Hatcher Pass Avalanche Forecast
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It will be possible to human trigger a persistent slab 1 to 3 ft thick on all aspects at mid and upper elevation today.
It will be possible to human trigger small dry loose sluffs in steep terrain 40° and steeper on all aspects, at all elevations.
Natural avalanches are unlikely.
Coverage is still thin and getting caught in any size avalanche could have severe consequences.
We recommend sticking to the rock skis/board for a little while longer.
No slab avalanches have been observed or reported since 11/16.
Numerous natural and human triggered small dry loose sluffs were observed on Friday 12/2.
12.2 Marmot- Dry Loose, W 4000′
12.2 Eldorado- Dry Loose E/SE 3600′
12.2 Skyscraper- Dry Loose S/SE 4000′
12.2 Martin Mine- Dry Loose, S/SW 4200′
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Persistent slabs, 1 to 3 ft thick, will be possible to human trigger in isolated locations, on all aspects, at mid and upper elevation. It will be unlikely to trigger an avalanche below 2500′ because the snowpack is shallower. Natural avalanches are unlikely.
3-4″ of low density new snow on Thursday was not enough to cover old tracks but has improved riding conditions.
Thankfully, the Matanuska wind did not build wind slabs as expected on Thursday afternoon, allowing us to continue on a track towards improving stability in the snowpack.
The good news is that no one has triggered an avalanche since Nov 16th and a lot of people have been getting out. The bad news is we still have very poor structure and flaws in our snowpack which are producing unstable results with snow pit tests. This points to the lingering possibility of human-triggering a full-depth slab avalanche at or near the ground.
We are still getting propagation in our pits.
Whumphing is a red flag for this avalanche problem, along with shooting cracks and recent avalanches.
Continue to use safe travel protocol in avalanche terrain:
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
It will be possible to human-trigger Thursday’s 3 to 4 inches of new snow on slopes 40º and steeper on all aspects, at all elevations. Natural avalanches are unlikely.
While avalanche size will be small, getting caught in a loose dry avalanche in steep terrain that funnels into any terrain trap has the potential to increase the consequences.
12.2 Skyscraper Human triggered and Natural Dry loose, NE 4500′