Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Sat, April 2nd, 2022 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, April 3rd, 2022 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Allie Barker
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger is LOW today.

Human triggered and natural avalanches are unlikely.

Freezing temperatures overnight will keep snow surfaces firm until late in the day.

Conditions include firm old wind slabs, sun-crusts, and sastrugi on many slopes. Low density snow can be found above 3000’ in protected north facing locations.

Sat, April 2nd, 2022
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

No recent slab avalanches have been observed or reported this week.

Some small natural loose wet avalanches were observed on southerlies earlier it the week.

Loose wet avalanches from earlier in the week. Didilkama Mountain. 4/1

 

4.1 Loose wet avalanches from earlier in the week. Sydney Creek

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Normal Caution
    Normal Caution
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Normal Caution
Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

We are in a holding pattern with avalanche problems at the moment. There is still a ton of snow, 7 feet or more in many locations at Hatcher Pass. Over night temps once again allowed the snow surface to freeze solid. Temperatures have been warming up considerably in the afternoon, especially below 2500′.

Avalanche danger is LOW today, human triggered and natural avalanches are unlikely.

Normal caution also means that it is possible to see small isolated wet loose avalanche activity, mostly on southerly aspects, at low elevation, in the afternoon on steep slopes above 35°.

Until we see several nights without freezing temps, we do not anticipate a wet slab cycle. Wet slabs are a more concerning and consequential avalanche problem compared to wet loose and can be hard to predict.

Few people have been getting out in the backcountry this week. Conditions are improving and timing is everything! Northerlies still harness powder in protected locations at upper elevation, and S and SW aspects have sun softened surfaces in the afternoon.

Get out and enjoy it and send us your observations.

4/1 Conditions in Delia Creek, Two Lakes and up the Mint Valley are improving!

 

4/1 Lots of snow in the Punk Spines and on Stairstep.

 

4/1 Shimmering crusts from Feb 26 still exist in specific locations. Delia Creek

It’s hard to believe it’s April already. As spring temperatures continue to warm up keep an eye out for these avalanche problems in the next several weeks:

  • Wet Loose avalanches becoming more likely on all aspects
  • Wet Slab avalanches as soon as nightime temps cease to freeze for 3 nights or more
  • Cornices that may break above you or trigger an avalanche below you
  • Glide cracks starting to open up and become a hazard

 

Weather
Sat, April 2nd, 2022

NWS AVG Forecast here.

NWS Rec Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass