Hatcher Pass Avalanche Forecast

Two small, natural wind slab  avalanches observed on Marmot, likely occurring Wednesday or Thursday. Strong winds lasted through 5am Friday.

1/6-7, Shoulder of South Ridge of Marmot, SW, 3100′, HS-N-D1-I x2, est. 6-8″ thick.

No other avalanches have been observed or reported this week. We hypothesize this is partially due to the reduced number of backcountry users at HP because of poor riding conditions.

Conditions photos:

East ridge of Hatch Peak, South aspect, 3700′, showing severe wind scouring to the ground and poor riding conditions.

Eldorado East, showing upper elevation wind scouring and shallow coverage, and cross-loading of features at mid elevation.

Winds are forecasted to increase this evening, but we are already seeing spike gusts this morning, SE 45 mph  at 4500′, and SE 25mph at 3500′ The wind forecast for this evening is E 17-38mph at 3000’+. The winds may have arrived a bit early in the forecast, so expect some new wind slab development from overnight, and continuing through today and tonight.

Wind slabs will be small in size, generally thin, 3-6″ thick, and in some isolated locations up to 8″, on leeward aspects, generally West, Northwest, North at upper elevations. Without much snow available to transport, wind slabs will remain relatively small today. These slabs will be possible to human trigger at upper elevations and natural avalanches are unlikely.  At mid and lower elevations, wind slabs are unlikely to human trigger and natural avalanches are unlikely.

Remember that any avalanche triggered, even a small one, carries the added consequence of rock hazards due to a generally thin snowpack.

Any triggered wind slabs will not be large enough to step down into buried persistent weak layers, yet. If wind speeds continue or increase today and into this evening, expect the wind slab avalanche hazard to increase overnight and into tomorrow, with thicker and larger wind slab avalanches and for the sensitivity of triggering to increase. As this problem grows, it may have the ability to overload persistent weak layers deeper in the snowpack.

This is just one of those years. Not a whole lot of snow to play with, barely cohesive enough to make a snowman, shallow, with rock hazards poking out in defiance in areas with even the thickest coverage, and a weak snowpack which will activate avalanches with any heavy load. The best we can hope for right now if for a good old 1970’s deep freeze, to vaporize what snow we have and turn it all into, you guessed it, Square Powder India Pale Ale from the Bear Paw Brewery! Keep your eyes peeled for this special edition, drink the snow blues away Ale while supporting your local avalanche center, coming soon.

Persistent slabs will be unlikely to trigger today at all elevations and aspects. Small avalanches are possible in isolated or extreme terrain. Large avalanches are very unlikely, but not impossible. Stability is improving very slowly.  See pit here from 1/5 for a visual reference of the layering of the current snowpack. Yesterday’s observation HERE.

Riding conditions remain variable at best with coverage varying from zero to 6 feet deep, often varying this much in as little distance as 50 feet.

Southerly and Easterly aspects have seen the brunt of winds this season, and are therefore scoured with thin coverage, zero to approximately 2.5 feet in places. The leeward aspects, northerly and westerly, have received wind blown snow through the season and therefore have a thicker snowpack, approximate 3-6 feet deep. Both aspects have poor structure, however the Southerly and Easterly have weaker structure in general with thinner slabs on top that are more easily triggered.

As we have been pointing out all season, because the coverage is so thin, taking a ride in any size avalanche will likely result in collision with rocks, compounding the hazard and increasing the overall danger. With so little reward due to poor riding conditions, the risk is even less enticing.

Even though the avalanche hazard is low, continue to use safe travel protocol, travel with partners, ride slopes one at a time, identify and use safe zones, and choose slopes with gentle runnouts lacking terrain traps.  Always ensure all members of your party carry beacons, shovels and probes and be practiced in companion rescue.