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Today’s avalanche problem will be persistent slab, avalanches are unlikely at all elevations and all aspects. Triggering an avalanche in isolated or extreme terrain is still possible.
Rocks and other hazards are sitting just below the surface, even a small avalanche could have high consequences.
In isolated wind protected areas some soft riding conditions can be found.
AMDS and BRP continue to support avalanche safety in Southcentral AK at HPAC with the newest and very best mechanized tools for access. This week we picked up the 2021 AMDS loaner machine. Thanks to everyone @akmining!
There have been no natural or human triggered avalanches observed this week.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Persistent slabs will be unlikely to trigger at all elevations and aspects. Large avalanches are unlikely but still possible in VERY isolated or extreme terrain.
The snowpack is gaining strength very slowly. Without any significant loading events tipping the balance, the weak sugary layers have had time to adjust to the load. West to Northwest to north aspects have significantly thicker coverage 3-6’ deep, due to wind events this season. In contrast, East thru south aspects are significantly shallower 0-2.5’. Human triggered avalanches are more likely in areas with a thinner snowpack(east thru south aspects).
Looking towards the future, our widespread weak snowpack will not handle large loads. Any big snow dump (load) will likely result in natural avalanches. See this observation to get a better idea of the snowpack’s structure.
Coverage is still thin, very thin, and this will increase the consequences for any avalanche triggered. Rocks and other hazards increase your chances of traumatic injury if you get caught in an avalanche.
Under the current conditions we will be continuing to practice safe travel procedures. We recommend ascending and descending avalanche terrain one at time, spreading out, using safe zones to regroup, and avoiding any terrain traps. Remember to always carry a transceiver, probe and shovel, and be practiced in their use.
1” of new snow this week
Overall the weather has been fairly uneventful in the forecast area this week. On Jan 10th both Independence Mine and Frostbite weather stations were well above freezing for most of the day. On Jan 11th strong to extreme winds blew from the east for approximately five hours. As the week progressed winds began to taper and temps began to cool off. While we did have strong to extreme winds from the east this week, there was little to no snow available for transport.
NWS Rec Forecast here.
NWS point forecast here.
State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.
Marmot 1/10-1/14
|
TEMP
F
|
RH
%
|
Spd
|
Gust
|
Dir
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Min | 16.8 | 52 | 2 | 6 | NNE |
Max | 26.7 | 96 | 18 | 47 | S |
Average | 21.2 | 68.3 | 10 | 17 | ESE |
Independence Mine 1/10-1/14
|
Temp
|
RH
|
Spd
|
Gust
|
Dir
|
|
|
|
SWE
|
SnoHT
|
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Min | 18 | 35 | 0 | 0 | N | 5.8 | 24 | ||||
Max | 32 | 92 | 9 | 34.6 | N | 6.2 | 25 | ||||
Average | 25 | 54.5 | 3.9 | 9.4 | – | 6.0 | 24.5 |
Changes in snowpack height reflects settlement in the snowpack.
Frostbite 1/10-1/14
|
Temp
|
RH
|
Spd
|
Gust
|
Dir
|
|
|
|
SWE
|
SnoHt
|
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Min | 23 | 38 | 0 | 0 | N | 6.6 | 26 | ||||
Max | 36 | 87 | 7.8 | 17.7 | NNW | 6.7 | 27 | ||||
Average | 28.3 | 55.5 | 4 | 8.5 | – | 6.65 | 26.5 |