Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Sat, January 13th, 2024 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, January 14th, 2024 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Allie Barker
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger remains LOW at all elevations.

The likelihood is low and the consequences are small but the possibility exists for triggering a small sluff or lingering slab avalanche in steep isolated or extreme terrain.

Stable conditions combined with excellent faceted powder will make today a great day to check off your favorite line from the bucket list.

The next pulse of snow in the forecast could bring 4 to 7 inches of snow Saturday evening into Sunday.

 

Special Announcements

Filing your PFD? Did you know HPAC is an official Pick.Click.Give organization? You can donate a portion of your 2024 PFD to one or multiple organizations, including HPAC. Consider making this gift to support forecasting in Hatcher Pass for years to come!

Sat, January 13th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Sun, January 14th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Sun, January 14th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

A few small loose dry avalanches (sluffs) were observed on Thursday and Friday.

No slab avalanches have been reported or observed since 1/7.

Recent Conditions

Considering the lack of recent avalanches this week, lets enjoy conditions photos instead!

1/12 Snow surfaces remain soft and faceted with excellent riding conditions in most locations. Photo: looking toward the Hatcher Pass lodge, Hatch ridge, 4068′ and Marmot.

 

1/12 Even though we have not seen new snow since 1/8, cold temps from Dec 25-31 and Jan 8-10 have assisted in faceting (losing moisture and density) snow surfaces, improving the quality of skiing and riding. Photo: looking towards Babe Ruth, Granite, lower Gold Chord and Lost Couloir in the background.

 

1/12 Powder Pimple of Hatch 3600′. Many ridges have firm conditions, rocks and tundra exposed from intermittent wind over the past few weeks. Conditions are better than they appear!

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Normal Caution
    Normal Caution
Normal Caution
Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.
More info at Avalanche.org

Another quiet day in the mountains will keep the avalanche danger at LOW.  We have endured a long stretch of low precipitation and low danger for over two weeks at Hatcher Pass which is highly unusual for this time of year.

Snow surfaces are a mix of soft and powdery (faceted) snow with variable thickness firm buried layers. Cold temperatures over the last couple weeks have assisted the snowpack in “faceting out” by degrading old wind slabs which has improved the quality of riding and stability in many locations.  Most ridgelines remain scoured, thin, and rocky. The potential to hit rocks has reemerged especially on shallower windward and southerly aspects.

The saying, “low danger does not mean no danger” might sound like a broken record and it’ a good reminder to maintain good travel habits.  Watch for any red flags like cracking and collapsing and use safe travel protocol including only exposing one person at a time, having escape routes planned, spotting our partners and using safe zones appropriately.

Sluffs this week have consistently been small and manageable. No slab avalanches have been observed or reported since 1/7. Although triggering an avalanche is unlikely today, keep in mind that it is possible to trigger a lingering wind slab in steeper terrain, small dry loose avalanches on steep slopes, or cornice fall which are all normal mountain hazards that continue to require some attention to identify and avoid.

A weather shift is in the horizon with 1-2″ of snow expected today and 4-6″ Saturday evening through Sunday.

 

Weather
Sat, January 13th, 2024

NWS AVG Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

Marmot Weather Station here.

Independence Mine Snotel here.

Frostbite Bottom Snotel here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

XC trail grooming report for Mat-Su, Anchorage, and Kenai here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass