Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Thu, January 31st, 2019 - 7:00AM
Expires
Fri, February 1st, 2019 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
HPAC Staff
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

This information is a Conditions Update. Danger ratings are only issued with avalanches advisories.  The next avalanche advisory is scheduled for Saturday February 2, 2019. 

Previous avalanche advisories HERE


MIDWEEK SNOW AND AVALANCHE CONDITIONS SUMMARY 

Avalanche hazards exist for persistent slab and loose dry avalanches at mid to upper elevations. Human triggered avalanches are possible and natural avalanches are unlikely.

Slab avalanches are the main concern, up to 2-3 feet deep, and large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person.

At low elevations, natural and human triggered avalanches are unlikely.

Avoid steep slopes with terrain traps such as gullies, cliffs, choose slopes with gentle, fanning runouts.

Hatcher Pass has had mild temperatures and overcast skies.  A major pattern shift for Southcentral Alaska weather began last Tuesday, bringing 9.5″ of new snow (0.94″ SWE), strong south and southeast winds, and above freezing temperatures up to 3500′.  The majority of the new snow fell under light winds from the east.

Surface conditions have improved dramatically with the addition of new snow.  However, a word of caution: new snow is hiding rocks and hazards, especially on south and southeast aspects that were already thin from strong winds over the last two weeks.  Currently good ski quality abounds on all aspects and at all elevations.

This report is a mid-week conditions update, so please be sure to check hpavalanche.org for advisories on Saturdays and follow the HPAC Facebook for updates. Help us keep tabs on the Hatcher Pass area! If you see any avalanche activity send us an observation HERE. Thank you to everyone who has already submitted observations this season – you can see those HERE!

 

Surface conditions have improved dramatically, with the addition of 9.5″ of snow since Thursday 1/24.

Above freezing temperatures on Tuesday 1/29 settled the new snow substantially.  Here, rollerballs, a sign of warming, are found at 2500′ below Peak 4068.

Areas that were visibly wind effected last week look much more appealing with 9.5″ of new snow.

Be warned that new snow is barely obscuring rocks and other hazards on south and southeast aspects where coverage was already thin from strong winds over the last two weeks.

Terrain traps, such as the gullies in the foreground and across the valley, will compound the consequences of even a small slide.  It’s best to choose terrain with gentle, fanning runouts.

Special Announcements

 

 

Buy tickets for the event here or visit Backcountry Bike and Ski or Active Soles in Palmer to buy tickets in person, cash only. We will have the award-winning band Tanana Rafters.

Unable to make it to our fundraiser?  Want more snow?  Consider donating to your local avalanche center to please the snow gods!

Want to donate a silent auction item or help with the fundraiser? Contact us at info@hpavalanche.org

 

Thu, January 31st, 2019
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Natural wind slab avalanche on Peak 4068, northeast aspect.  Slope overloaded by a combination of 1/25 wind transported snow and 1/28 new snow. Estimated to have occurred mid storm on 1/28.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closer view of natural avalanche on northeast aspect of Peak 4068.

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Persistent Slabs
    Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
More info at Avalanche.org

Above 3000′, on northerly and westerly aspects along ridgelines, and on cross loaded features on all aspects, hard old wind slabs of varying thickness can be found sitting under 9.5″ of new snow from last weekend.  This slab is generally sitting on loose, faceted snow.  It may be possible to trigger an avalanche on this layer, especially on steep, unsupported slopes.  Even small avalanches may have the ability to carry or wash you into secondary hazards, such as rocks and cliffs, quickly compounding the hazard.

Let’s continue to remind ourselves of a few simple safety protocols for backcountry travel which can increase our level of safety while in avalanche terrain. Always carry on our persons, and know how to use, a beacon, shovel and probe, avoid terrain traps, ski and ride one at a time, and spot our partners.

Hard old wind slabs of varying thickness can be found sitting under 9.5″ of new snow from last weekend.  This slab is generally sitting on loose, faceted snow.  It may be possible to trigger an avalanche on this layer, especially on steep, unsupported slopes.

Avalanche Problem 2
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
More info at Avalanche.org

Above 3000′, on northerly and westerly aspects along ridgelines, and on cross loaded features on all aspects, hard old wind slabs of varying thickness can be found sitting under 9.5″ of new snow from last weekend.  This slab is generally sitting on loose, faceted snow.  It may be possible to trigger an avalanche on this layer, especially on steep, unsupported slopes.  Even small avalanches may have the ability to carry or wash you into secondary hazards, such as rocks and cliffs, quickly compounding the hazard.

Weather
Thu, January 31st, 2019

Weather History

Weather at 3450′ since Saturday 1/26:

Temperatures averaged 28°F, with a low of 20°F and a high of 33°F.

There has been 9.5″ of snow (0.95″ SWE) recorded at Independence Mine since Thursday 1/24.

Weather at 4500′ since Saturday 1/26:

Temperatures averaged 23°F, with a low of 16°F and a high of 27°F.

Winds averaged E to SE 7 mph, max 13 mph.  Gusts averaged E to SE 12 mph, max gust 23 mph.

Forecast Weather

Stay tuned to the NOAA point forecast for an updated weather forecast each day. The best way to see if it’s snowing in Hatcher Pass is to look at the webcam snow stake HERE and the Independence Mine SNOTEL site HERE

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass