Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

Hatcher Pass Avalanche Forecast RSS

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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Sat, February 2nd, 2019 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, February 3rd, 2019 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
HPAC Staff
The Bottom Line

A MODERATE avalanche hazard exists for persistent slab and loose dry avalanches at mid to upper elevations. Human triggered avalanches are possible and natural avalanches are unlikely. A LOW hazard exists at low elevation.

Slab avalanches may be triggered on a variety of aspects, at mid to upper elevations, 1-2 feet deep, on slopes 35° and steeper and may be larger enough to bury, injure or kill.  Shooting cracks and whumphing are bulls-eye clues for this avalanche danger.

Loose dry avalanches may be fast moving and large enough to sweep you off your feet, carrying you into secondary, compounding hazards. It will be possible to human trigger, and may be naturally triggered by direct solar radiation on southerly aspects, especially near rocks, on slopes 40° and steeper.

Choose slopes lacking terrain traps.

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Sat, February 2nd, 2019
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Recent Avalanches

Numerous natural slab avalanches were observed this week, likely occurring 1/25 to 1/28, 1-2′ deep, up to D2 in size, failing on new snow/old snow interface, West > North > East, in elevations band 4,000′ to 4800′. See observation and PICS here.

Numerous natural dry loose sluffs were observed this week with 7-9.5″ of new, low density snow, the majority of which accumulated on 1/28, on all aspects, on slopes above 40º.  Many of the loose dry avalanches occurred during the 1/28 storm, with more natural activity on 1/31 with the first direct solar gain on the new snow.

Yesterday, 2/1 – On the northern side of Friendship pass near Dog Sled Pass, a human triggered slab avalanche was reported on a NW aspect, 35-38º slope, 4700′, D1.5.  One person was caught and carried, partially buried to their chest, no injuries. 2 pictures below.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather
Sat, February 2nd, 2019

This week’s weather at 3550′:

Temps averaged 25ºF, with a low of 17ºF and a high of 23ºF.

7-9.5″ of new snow accumulated this week.

Overnight at 3550′:

Temps averaged 14°F.

No new snow.

This week’s weather at 4500′:

Temps averaged 22ºF, with a low of 12ºF and a high of 27ºF.

Winds averaged SE 6 mph, max 13 mph . Gusts averaged SE 10 mph, max gust SE 23 mph.

Overnight at 4500′:

Temps averaged 11ºF overnight, with a Low of  10ºF.

Winds averaged SSE 4 mph overnight. Max gust S 19 mph.


NWS Rec Forecast HERE


NWS point forecast HERE


State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information HERE


TREND

A weather pattern change is forecasted for Sunday through Monday. Southwest flow is expected to bring new snow, with preliminary estimates at 15″. Models are showing winds 20-30 mph at 5000’. Additionally, surface hoar is currently widespread, 2-4mm in size. New snow and wind will increase the avalanche hazard.

NWS recreations forecast

The Hatcher Pass Mountain Forecast covers the mountains in the
Hatcher Pass Recreation Area.

This forecast is for use in snow safety activities and emergency
management.

                   Today        Tonight

Temp at 1000`      15 F         12 F

Temp at 3000`      17 F         19 F

Chance of precip   0%           50%

Precip amount
(above 1000 FT)    0.00 in      0.07 in

Snow amount
(above 1000 FT)    0 in         0-2 in

Snow level         sea level    sea level

Wind 3000` ridges  LGT/VAR      SE 0-7 mph

Remarks...Broad and moist southwesterly flow sets up early Sunday
morning and continues through Sunday night. A rough 24 hr(Sunday
morning through Sunday night) snowfall estimate of 15 inches is
possible in the higher elevations toward the mine.
Observations
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