Hatcher Pass
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The Bottom Line
The avalanche hazard is MODERATE today above 2500 ft. Human triggering a wind slab avalanche formed by yesterday’s wind will be possible today on southwest through north aspects. Watch out for and avoid locations where winds have deposited snow, or places that are actively drifting snow today.
Expect a day with minus temperatures and frostbite potential, sunny skies, and square faceted powder in protected locations.
Some uncertainty exists for the duration and intensity of wind today. Expect any sustained wind to contribute to the avalanche problem of the day before winds diminish on Sunday.
Special AnnouncementsPermanent Fund Dividend applications are available from January 1 to March 31. If you have already applied, Alaskans may choose to add or adjust their pledges online through August 31. For the first time, HPAC is one of the charitable organizations you can support! Thank you for your contribution toward avalanche safety.
| Sun, March 3rd, 2024 |
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| Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
| Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
| Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Despite raging winds in the valley over the past few days, winds have remained relatively calm for most of Hatcher Pass. Winds were strong enough to transport low density snow to upper elevation leeward aspects and specific terrain features where a couple small avalanches were reported since Thursday.
A couple small natural wind slabs and two human triggered windslabs were observed or reported on Friday. No other recent avalanches have been observed or reported in the forecast area.
3.1 Human triggered small wind slab 2-8″ thick and 10 ft wide was human triggered on a steep NNE aspect at 4400′ just below ridgeline off of Peak 4600′
3.1 A recent small natural windslab avalanche in April Bowl WSW aspect at 4000′ in April Bowl
3.1 A small recent windslab avalanche on the Punkspines N 3700′
For avalanches earlier in the week find more information in the observations here.
| Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
| Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
| Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
| Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
| Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Wind slabs 4-10″ thick will be possible to human trigger in specific locations on southwest to north aspects (clockwise) at mid and upper elevations on slopes 35º and steeper. Natural avalanches are unlikely. Despite strong winds nuking in the valley over the past few days, Hatcher Pass has remained relatively calm due to an interesting katabatic wind phenomena. Marmot weather station at 4500′ has reported a slight increase in overnight winds in the teens with ENE gusts 21-34 mph for 4 hours.
Accurately assessing wind slab distribution and sensitivity today may be challenging due to strong winds at the valley level, shifting wind patterns at Hatcher Pass and the lack of data from weather stations. Pay attention to visual clues!
Expect any sustained winds to continue building wind slabs before diminishing by the end of day.
Most likely locations to trigger a wind slab will be near ridgeline and on crossloaded slopes and gully features. We were able to trigger a small wind slab 2-8″ thick on a north aspect at 4000′ yesterday. Even though the avalanche was small, the slab moved fast and could catch you off guard due to a weak sugary snow (near surface facets) bed surface that has developed during the recent cold spell. We also got reports of two additional wind slab avalanches triggered on Friday.
Despite many upper elevation ridgelines being firm and wind scoured, sunny skies and cold temperatures today will contribute to excellent riding conditions in protected locations.
The “Knob” above Goldmint parking lot
Use hand pits and pole probes to identify lingering wind slabs. Look for hard snow sitting over weaker snow, smooth and rounded or lens shaped features. Shooting cracks or whumping are signs of instability and indicators of this avalanche problem.
As always we recommend carrying the appropriate rescue gear and knowing how to use it. Safe travel techniques are important every time we travel in avalanche terrain. This means spreading out when ascending slopes, descending one at a time, and regrouping well outside of the runout zone.
The models below show how specific this wind pattern is to elevation for Hatcher Pass. Expect winds to diminish by the end of day Saturday.
Winds at 5000′ at 7am
Winds at 3000′ at 7am
Winds at 2000′ at 7am
NWS AVG Forecast here.
NWS point forecast here.
Marmot Weather Station here.
Independence Mine Snotel here.
Frostbite Bottom Snotel here.
State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.
XC trail grooming report for Mat-Su, Anchorage, and Kenai here.
