Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Thu, February 29th, 2024 - 7:00AM
Expires
Fri, March 1st, 2024 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Ryan Lewthwaite
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Triggering an avalanche today remains unlikely.

All aspects and elevations are at a LOW avalanche danger until we have a change from the current weather pattern.

Even on low hazard days, it is a good idea to have a plan and clear terrain management strategies for ascents and descents.

With plenty of snow available for transport and increasing winds forecasted for Friday 3/1, expect sensitive slabs to build on specific leeward aspects.

Special Announcements

Permanent Fund Dividend applications are available from January 1 to March 31. If you have already applied, Alaskans may choose to add or adjust their pledges online through August 31. For the first time, HPAC is one of the charitable organizations you can support! Thank you for your contribution toward avalanche safety.

Thu, February 29th, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Fri, March 1st, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Fri, March 1st, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

A week has passed since the last storm on 2/22, which brought 11 inches of new snow to the area and up to 1″ of SWE. Since then we have had a mild weather pattern with light winds, ample sunshine and cold temperatures. 2/24 saw an additional 4-5″ new snow.

Sunday was a popular day up on the pass with a couple hundred recreationists taking to the slopes in search of powder turns. According to the State Parks data counter, over 200+ people recreated on Sunday 2/25. People took advantage of the great weather, traveling on an array of different terrain and aspects. Within the forecast area, there were only two skier triggered avalanches, one on Eldorado and one on Gold Chord. No one was caught or carried. The Eldorado avalanche appeared to be a small pocket of lingering slab that entrained loose dry snow below.

Just beyond our forecast area a few larger and more destructive avalanches caught snowmachiners by surprise. One of the incidents involved a burial with no injuries. Please reference observations for more details on this week’s avalanches. Note that forecasters conducted a crown profile and did not get propagation on this slab/weak layer.

Skier triggered Gold Chord 2/25/24 Soft slab approximately 25’ with a roughly 3’ crown, running about 500’. No parties were caught, carried or injured.

02/25/24 Eldorado Bowl skiier triggered avalanche

 

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Normal Caution
    Normal Caution
Normal Caution
Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.
More info at Avalanche.org

With a lack of precipitation and decreased winds, not much has affected the overall snowpack this week except for temperature. Single digit temperatures at mid and upper elevations have caused some faceting in the snowpack, which has improved riding conditions and degraded the buried crusts from the previous week of warm temperatures 2/12-19. There is low confidence with forecasted winds in Hatcher Pass recently. Despite strong winds in the Mat-Su valley, we have not had any additional loading or winds capable of building slabs since the 2/22 storm. On northerly aspects, crusts below the storm snow have been more difficult to find, especially above 3500 feet. Buried crusts and the weak snow that may surround them are worth paying attention to with future loading events. Cold temperatures have also assisted most lingering slabs to lose density and become unconsolidated.

Remember, on low hazard days, avalanches are unlikely but not impossible. Despite low likelihood, it may be possible to trigger a lingering slab or loose dry avalanches on terrain steeper than 40° especially in confining drainage features with lingering crusts below. Staying out of terrain traps, descending one at a time, and utilizing safe zones is always good practice.

Weather
Thu, February 29th, 2024

02/29/24 Light winds out of the northeast, cold temperatures. Winds are forecasted to build by tomorrow 3/1.

NWS AVG Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

Marmot Weather Station here.

Independence Mine Snotel here.

Frostbite Bottom Snotel here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

XC trail grooming report for Mat-Su, Anchorage, and Kenai here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass