Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Thu, March 21st, 2024 - 7:00AM
Expires
Fri, March 22nd, 2024 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
R.Lewthwaite / A.Paul
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Today expect the avalanche danger to rise from LOW to MODERATE. Melting snow from direct sunlight will make it possible to trigger loose wet avalanches in steep terrain on southeast through southwest aspects. Consider timing your activities earlier and retreating to shaded aspects as the temperature increases and the sun becomes more intense.

Special Announcements

Join us next Thursday! HPAC will be hosting Mountain in My Mind Vol. 1 at the Bear Tooth Theatrepub & Grill. Along with the film, there will be a mental health/outdoor recreation panel discussion led by Sarah Histand (Mind & Mountain), Tucker Chenoweth (Denali National Park), and Kathleen Heiskell (Redside Alliance). Get tickets here!

Thu, March 21st, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Fri, March 22nd, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Fri, March 22nd, 2024
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

Since March 10th, Hatcher Pass has received less than one foot of snow. We are now experiencing consistent overnight freezes and above freezing day time temperatures. The trend towards spring has arrived a bit early. 

In specific solar exposed areas, including southeast through southwest aspects, we have seen numerous small to large wet loose point releases. South facing terrain in places like Archangel Valley, Martin Mine, Babe Ruth, Divide Ridge, and Skyscraper Peak are prime examples of where you can find evidence of this type of avalanche activity. A large D2 loose wet avalanche was reported outside of the forecast zone in Goodhope Valley on 3/20. Sagging and shedding cornices have also been observed in some locations where these large and firm masses of snow are unsupported and overhanging. Most windward slopes, ridgelines, and some confining terrain have firm windswept surfaces which makes for challenging climbing and lower quality skiing. Dry faceted snow still remains on shady aspects, particularly at higher elevations. 

Natural Loose Wet Avalanches Near Sidney Creek Southwest Aspect 3/20/24

Martin Mine Natural Wet Loose Avalanches on Southeast Aspect 3/20/24

Recent Conditions

Firm Windswept Surfaces at Ridgeline in the Upper Elevation 3/20/2024

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Wet Loose
    Wet Loose
  • Aspect/Elevation
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Wet Loose
Wet Loose avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Aspect/Elevation of the Avalanche Problem
Specialists develop a graphic representation of the potential distribution of a particular avalanche problem across the topography. This aspect/elevation rose is used to indicate where the particular avalanche problem is thought to exist on all elevation aspects. Areas where the avalanche problem is thought to exist are colored grey, and it is less likely to be encountered in areas colored white.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

Over the last 48 hours, ample sunshine and increasing temperatures have melted and loosened the surface snowpack, especially on those aspects with higher slope angles which receive long durations of sun. It will be possible this afternoon to trigger small to large loose wet avalanches on southeast through southwest aspects at all elevations. Terrain steeper than 40° in these locations has been shedding natural loose wet avalanches for the past couple of days. During our field observations on Wednesday 3/20, we witnessed over a dozen natural avalanches, some of them cascading over cliffs and some slowly moving large amounts of snow downhill with audible sounds. 

Timing and aspect choice will be critical for avoiding these avalanches. Getting on the terrain during the morning hours, while the surface is still cold and firm will allow for a more consolidated and refrozen snowpack. After significant sun and warming the upper snowpack will lose cohesion and it will be easier to trigger and/or naturally avalanche. Sticking to shaded aspects on the northwest through northeast portions of the compass will alleviate most of the concern for loose wet avalanches even in the afternoon hours. With temperatures expected to climb above 40F° in the afternoon at the low elevations, look out for tell tale warming signs such as rollerballs, pinwheels and wet, gloppy snow. Cloud cover and even minor wind affect could change the timing and intensity of this warming.

Natural Loose Wet Avalanches Near Pinnacle Southwest Aspect 3/20/24

 

Weather
Thu, March 21st, 2024

Warm Temperatures at Marmot Weather Station 4500 feet

NWS AVG Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

Marmot Weather Station here.

Independence Mine Snotel here.

Frostbite Bottom Snotel here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

XC trail grooming report for Mat-Su, Anchorage, and Kenai here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass