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Today expect the avalanche danger to rise from LOW to MODERATE. Melting snow from direct sunlight will make it possible to trigger loose wet avalanches in steep terrain on southeast through southwest aspects. Consider timing your activities earlier and retreating to shaded aspects as the temperature increases and the sun becomes more intense.
Join us next Thursday! HPAC will be hosting Mountain in My Mind Vol. 1 at the Bear Tooth Theatrepub & Grill. Along with the film, there will be a mental health/outdoor recreation panel discussion led by Sarah Histand (Mind & Mountain), Tucker Chenoweth (Denali National Park), and Kathleen Heiskell (Redside Alliance). Get tickets here!
Fri, March 22nd, 2024 |
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Since March 10th, Hatcher Pass has received less than one foot of snow. We are now experiencing consistent overnight freezes and above freezing day time temperatures. The trend towards spring has arrived a bit early.
In specific solar exposed areas, including southeast through southwest aspects, we have seen numerous small to large wet loose point releases. South facing terrain in places like Archangel Valley, Martin Mine, Babe Ruth, Divide Ridge, and Skyscraper Peak are prime examples of where you can find evidence of this type of avalanche activity. A large D2 loose wet avalanche was reported outside of the forecast zone in Goodhope Valley on 3/20. Sagging and shedding cornices have also been observed in some locations where these large and firm masses of snow are unsupported and overhanging. Most windward slopes, ridgelines, and some confining terrain have firm windswept surfaces which makes for challenging climbing and lower quality skiing. Dry faceted snow still remains on shady aspects, particularly at higher elevations.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Over the last 48 hours, ample sunshine and increasing temperatures have melted and loosened the surface snowpack, especially on those aspects with higher slope angles which receive long durations of sun. It will be possible this afternoon to trigger small to large loose wet avalanches on southeast through southwest aspects at all elevations. Terrain steeper than 40° in these locations has been shedding natural loose wet avalanches for the past couple of days. During our field observations on Wednesday 3/20, we witnessed over a dozen natural avalanches, some of them cascading over cliffs and some slowly moving large amounts of snow downhill with audible sounds.
Timing and aspect choice will be critical for avoiding these avalanches. Getting on the terrain during the morning hours, while the surface is still cold and firm will allow for a more consolidated and refrozen snowpack. After significant sun and warming the upper snowpack will lose cohesion and it will be easier to trigger and/or naturally avalanche. Sticking to shaded aspects on the northwest through northeast portions of the compass will alleviate most of the concern for loose wet avalanches even in the afternoon hours. With temperatures expected to climb above 40F° in the afternoon at the low elevations, look out for tell tale warming signs such as rollerballs, pinwheels and wet, gloppy snow. Cloud cover and even minor wind affect could change the timing and intensity of this warming.