Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Thu, December 21st, 2023 - 7:00AM
Expires
Fri, December 22nd, 2023 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Ryan Lewthwaite
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

There is a MODERATE avalanche danger on all aspects and elevations. 10 to 17 inches of new snow over the last 4 days has resulted in relatively few natural and human triggered avalanches in steep terrain and/or on firm bed surface layers that contain weak snow grains. Slopes over 40º in steepness should be approached with caution due to the potential for DRY LOOSE avalanches. It may be possible to trigger PERSISTENT SLAB avalanches on specific windward locations in the upper elevations.

Special Announcements

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Thu, December 21st, 2023
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Fri, December 22nd, 2023
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Fri, December 22nd, 2023
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

Two human triggered avalanches were reported here. Hatch Peak 12-16Gold Mint Trailhead 12-17

Several loose dry and shallow slab avalanches were observed on Wednesday. No human triggered avalanches were observed or reported on Wednesday.

12-20 Persistent Slab Avalanches near Martin Mine on East-Southwest Aspects 4400ft
credit: Elias Neuffer

12-20 Persistent Slab Avalanches in Martin Mine on East-Southwest Aspects 4400ft

Recent Conditions

12-20 Shallow Snowpack on Windward Southeast Aspect 4068 Peak at 3500ft

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Dry Loose
    Dry Loose
  • Aspect/Elevation
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Dry Loose
Dry Loose avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Aspect/Elevation of the Avalanche Problem
Specialists develop a graphic representation of the potential distribution of a particular avalanche problem across the topography. This aspect/elevation rose is used to indicate where the particular avalanche problem is thought to exist on all elevation aspects. Areas where the avalanche problem is thought to exist are colored grey, and it is less likely to be encountered in areas colored white.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

During the past 4 days Hatcher Pass has accumulated 10 to 17 inches of new low density snow. Good visibility revealed few natural dry loose avalanches. These were found in terrain steeper than 40º on numerous different aspects in the mid and upper elevations. One human triggered avalanche within the new loose snow was reported yesterday, but sluffs were small and manageable. Confining terrain such as gullies, or where abrupt changes in slope angle occur are likely places to trigger this unconsolidated snow. Expect to find this avalanche problem on all aspects and elevations.

12-20 Loose Dry Avalanches on Marmot Peak Southwest Aspect 4200ft

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Persistent Slabs
    Persistent Slabs
  • Aspect/Elevation
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Aspect/Elevation of the Avalanche Problem
Specialists develop a graphic representation of the potential distribution of a particular avalanche problem across the topography. This aspect/elevation rose is used to indicate where the particular avalanche problem is thought to exist on all elevation aspects. Areas where the avalanche problem is thought to exist are colored grey, and it is less likely to be encountered in areas colored white.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

After the morning overcast burned off on 12/20 and good light hit the slopes, we were able to see the remnants of surprisingly few and widely connected crowns from avalanches within the recently deposited snow. These wide propagating yet thin, 5 to 10 inches thick slabs were observed in places where previously strong winds had scoured the snowpack to firm old crusts or bed surfaces or nearly bare ground. The presence of Facets, some near or on the surface of these firm layers likely contributed to the array of avalanches seen today and over the weekend on some mid elevation slopes.

The sliding surfaces for yesterday’s recent slab avalanches are located specifically on windward aspects, and mostly confined to the upper elevations. Prevailing winds from the east/southeast previously scalloped away the soft snow leaving behind firm surface layers that will readily shed new snow. Avoiding slopes 30 degrees and steeper that face east to southwest in the upper elevations, especially those with a firm subsurface layer will give you a better margin for safety. 

Although the presence of persistent grains has not been found nor reactive everywhere on the slopes does not mean that they aren’t lingering in the snowpack. Cold and dry conditions can promote the growth and sensitivity of these weak grains allowing them to remain dormant and stubborn for a duration of time and then reemerge later. Shallow snowpack areas are the best place to find and trigger persistent slab avalanches which may be large in some isolated locations.

12-20 Persistent Slab Avalanches on Eldorado Bowl Southeast Aspect at 4200ft
credit: Elias Neuffer

Weather
Thu, December 21st, 2023

NWS AVG Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

Marmot Weather Station here.

Independence Mine Snotel here.

Frostbite Bottom Snotel here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

XC trail grooming report for Mat-Su, Anchorage, and Kenai here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass