Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center
Hatcher Pass

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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Thu, January 27th, 2022 - 7:00AM
Expires
Fri, January 28th, 2022 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Jake Kayes
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Human triggered persistent slab avalanches are possible at mid and upper elevations, on all aspects, in slopes 30º or steeper. Avalanches will be small to large in size, natural avalanches are unlikely. 

Remotely triggered avalanches are possible. 

Small loose dry avalanches are possible at mid and upper elevations and on all aspects. Human triggered avalanches are possible on slopes 40º degrees or steeper. Natural avalanches are unlikely.

Special Announcements

HPAC is unfortunately canceling our annual “Cabin Fever Reliever” fundraiser (2/6/2022) due to rising COVID-19 case numbers in our community. Please donate via the website to support your local avalanche center. 

We have lots of new items for sale including original HPAC ball caps, buffs, limited edition beer mugs, and tote bags. Stay tuned for more info on where to pick up some HPAC items!

Contact andydennis@hpavalanche.org for any questions or if you would like to learn about business sponsorship ideas.

Look for a major fundraising push in the near future. 

Thu, January 27th, 2022
Upper Elevation
Above 3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Mid Elevation
2,500'-3,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Low Elevation
Below 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Avalanches

There were numerous natural avalanches that occurred on Jan 25th. On Jan 25th one human triggered avalanche occurred on 4068 and one remote triggered avalanche was reported in upper Willow Creek. Click here for more info on recent avalanches.

4068′ NE aspect 3200′- Human triggered

Upper Willow Creek 4000ft, WNW

Nosehairs, SE/S aspects 4400’/4600′- approx 1000-1500′ wide x 800′ long x 2-3 ft deep

Natural Avalanche backside of Microdot NW 4100′

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Persistent Slabs
    Persistent Slabs
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.
Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

Persistent slab avalanches are possible at mid and upper elevations. The structure of the snowpack is poor on all aspects but chances of human triggered avalanches are increased where the snowpack is thin and easier to affect weak layers. Areas with a thinner snowpack can be found on Southerly aspects and near ridge lines. The Willow side of Hatcher Pass has a much thinner snowpack. These avalanches will be small to large in size. Human triggered avalanches are possible and natural avalanches are unlikely. 

On Jan 24-25th 8-9 inches of new snow fell. These weather events were responsible for a natural avalanche cycle on 25th. 

Murphy Bench 3900′ SW

To identify this avalanche problem and areas with poor structure use pole/probes and formal stability tests. Whumping and shooting cracks are red flags for this avalanche problem but may not occur prior to an avalanche being triggered.

Riding quality has improved dramatically but don’t let soft snow cause you to throw safe travel techniques out the window. Spread out when ascending slopes, descend slopes one at a time, and stop in safe zones outside of the runout zone of avalanches. Even a small avalanche can have severe consequences if traveling above a terrain trap.

Remote triggering avalanches is a concern out in the backcountry today. Give avalanche terrain some extra space. Be extra cautious if you can’t see terrain that’s above you.

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Dry Loose
    Dry Loose
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Dry Loose
Dry Loose avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.
Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.
Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

Loose Dry Avalanches are possible at mid and upper elevations and on all aspects, on slopes 40 degrees or steeper. These avalanches will be small in size, natural avalanches are unlikely. 

If you choose to enter steeper terrain use proper sluff management. Know what’s below you. Even a small dry loose avalanche can knock you off your feet and push you over cliffs, into rocks and other hazards. 

Weather
Thu, January 27th, 2022

NWS AVG Forecast here.

NWS Rec Forecast here.

NWS point forecast here.

State Parks Snow Report and Motorized Access information here.

Observations
Recent Observations for Hatcher Pass